We’re in a golden age of top wide receiver play in the NFL. There are so many top-end players at the position, which has pushed up the overall ADP of wideouts. It’s not uncommon to see seven to eight wide receivers come off the board in Round 1 of fantasy drafts this season.
There are 14 wide receivers to 10 running backs inside the top 24 picks in Yahoo drafts right now.
My favorite team builds have mostly come when I manage to leave the first four rounds with at least two receivers who “start themselves,” in the words of Scott Pianowski. That means you’re going to have to skimp at either elite tight end or quarterback but you can make up ground at those positions later. You can talk yourself into the best-case outcomes for receivers down the draft board but those bets get thin quickly.
I’d say the cliff comes around WR32 in my rankings this year. Right before that range, there are still some solid bets, like George Pickens, Zay Flowers and Chris Godwin. After that, we get into some volatile territory.
In that range, I typically want to take shots on second-year wide receivers and rookies who could exceed expectations. There are some underrated veterans in good spots like Calvin Ridley in the mid rounds or Curtis Samuel in the late rounds but for the most part, I’m opting for youth outside the top 32 at the position.
1 player at the position I want to leave drafts with and why
Take your shots on Texans wide receivers in drafts this year and ignore the math and the mean outcomes.
As I wrote in my projections recap piece, it may be unlikely that, if all three Texans wideouts stay healthy and play at their peak, Nico Collins exceeds his late Round 3 ADP. That is, unless you project C.J. Stroud to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. That's possible because he's electric, but not probable. The math won't necessarily add up for a room like this one.
I desperately need you to stop caring about this.
Mean outcomes don’t win fantasy football leagues. You take down a league by landing on extreme upside cases that you got at a value. In a league ruled by chaos, you can’t be afraid to sail into the eye of the storm. Should one of these Texans receivers miss time, the others will launch into WR1 territory. That’s how good these three guys are and how special Stroud can be in Year 2.
I broke down the Texans' wide receivers in depth earlier this offseason here on Yahoo. I expect all three to play critical roles for the team.
Nico Collins plays as the X-receiver, which means he’s the least likely to leave the field and was one of the most dominant wideouts in football against man and press coverage in 2023. His arrow is pointing up. His mean projection might not equal WR16 but his upside case is significantly higher. This is the type of prime, alpha WR1 I want to bet on.
Stefon Diggs took a step back as an individual player last season but still showed the ability to separate on short, quick-hitting routes at an extremely high level. I can easily see his role folding out for a Texans offense that was not efficient on late downs.
That won’t equal the same fantasy ceiling Diggs once had, but at WR25, he’s worth chasing, especially if he develops a mind-meld with Stroud in the slot.
Then there is Tank Dell, who was the most productive Texans wideout for stretches as a rookie. Dell is undersized, but he obliterates man coverage on the outside. His role and skill set may lead to some scoring volatility in this crowded room, but he’s an A-tier separator on out-breaking routes with a quarterback who can rip those throws.
When Dell does hit, he will win you weeks.
Projections don’t help you capture the upside of unique situations. Rankings don’t capture those ceiling cases like you need to build a devastating receiver corps. Lean into one of those rare moments this season by making sure you get exposure to one of these Texans wideouts early in your draft.
1 sleeper whom I expect to smash their ADP
Diontae Johnson remains a painfully underrated player. The Panthers' wide receivers created zero separation last season for Bryce Young and that’s been Johnson’s specialty as a pro.
Given that skill set, he is going to absorb volume this year. He's done it every season of his career, regardless of the quarterback. Johnson set career-highs last year in yards per target (8.2) and yards per route run (1.97), despite carrying the highest aDOT of his career (12.7) and playing with the worst quarterback room he's seen as a pro. That's simply because he was moved around the formation, not pigeon-holed as a boundary X at 5-foot-10, 183 pounds. After watching Dave Canales beautifully construct Mike Evans' route tree and deployment to suit Baker Mayfield, I trust him to get Johnson's role right.
If Young is even a league-average passer, Johnson will smash his meager WR32 ADP.
1 fade who could fall way short of their ADP
The good news is that there aren’t a ton of obvious talent-based landmines at the wide receiver position, especially in the early rounds. I’m generally in line with ADP at the top this year, with a few minor exceptions.
On that note, knowing which players to avoid in the middle rounds is more critical as we’re searching for ceiling cases. One player who fits that mold is Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver, Christian Kirk.
My issue isn’t really with Kirk the player; he has a role and fills it well as Trevor Lawrence’s slot receiver and layup target. However, that area of the field does overlap with Evan Engram’s strengths as a receiver. The tight end is essentially a jumbo slot receiver. There’s a decent chance those two guys cannibalize each other this season and both are ranked a bit higher than where their median projections come out for me.
It's worth noting that my Kirk fade mostly comes from optimism on rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. By all accounts, Thomas has taken off in recent practices and shown significant improvement from how he opened camp. Thomas made one of the most impressive plays in the preseason for any rookie wideout, progressing the drumbeat from the practice field to game-film in ways we want to see for young wideouts:
Most importantly, Thomas lined up as a starter in two-receiver sets along with Gabe Davis.
Thomas may still be a slow-developing picture after running a limited route tree in college but there is a strong chance he ends the year as Jacksonville’s most productive receiver. That’s enough for me to fade Kirk in an ADP range that already has George Pickens, Terry McLaurin and a bevy of gifted second-year wideouts.
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