Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030

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Outside of NVIDIA’s ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) recent share price going stratospheric, Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN ) has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $.07.

Today, Amazon stock trades for $170.58, which means that stock is up over 174674.59% since May 1997, turning every $1000 invested into $1.748 million today.

The only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next 1, 5, and 10 years and beyond. Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do).

• Future stock performance hinges on Amazon's growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition.
• Amazon's revenue grew 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30.42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next 5 years at 4.5x.
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Recent Amazon Stock Updates and News

• 9/9/2024- Amazon stock opened Monday 1.78% higher after a steep drop this past Friday due to a poor jobs report stating only 142,000 nonfarm jobs were added, which was below the estimated 160,000 jobs.
• 9/6/2024- Amazon's stock price closed at $177.89 yesterday and fell by 2% today. The lowest price it reached during the day was $173.90, and the last price it traded at was $174.30.
• 9/5/2024- Due to the strength of its AWS business, Amazon's stock has outperformed its major cloud competitors, Microsoft and Google. The company has also been at the forefront of the AI revolution, investing heavily in generative AI technologies. However, the company's e-commerce operations have faced challenges, including changing consumer spending habits and foreign exchange fluctuations. But analysts are bullish on Amazon's future, particularly due to its growing digital ad business and strong cloud computing.
• 9/4/2024- Amazon announced that WPP and Omnicom Media Group (OMG) have been chosen to handle its media account. The two companies will split the account geographically, with OMG overseeing operations in the Americas and WPP managing EMEA and APAC.
• 9/3/2024- This past weekend Amazon hired three key people from Covariant, a startup specializing in warehouse robot AI. Pieter Abbeel, Peter Chen, and Rocky Duan, who previously worked at OpenAI, are joining Amazon's robotics division, along with a quarter of Covariant's team. In addition, Amazon will also now license Covariant's core AI models non-exclusively to boost their own warehouse robots.

Here's a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017.

*Revenue and Net Income in Billions

In the last decade, Amazon's revenue grew about 540% while its net income moved from losing money to 30.42 billion in profits this past year. The ride up wasn't always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being "pulled forward" led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.

1. E-Commerce Success: While Covid brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won't be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago.
2. Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn't as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Azure and Google's (Nasdaq: GOOGL) Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can't stop market share losses.
3. Advertising: Amazon exits 2023 with a $47 billion advertising business that grew 24% in 2023. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line - Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business - which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits.

The current consensus 1 year price target for Amazon stock is $218.23, which is 27.93% upside from today’s stock price of $170.58. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.32 “Buy” rating.

24/7 Wall Street's 12-month forecast projects Amazon’s stock price to be $225. We see AWS continue its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analyst expectations, particularly in the 4th quarter of 2024 with more streaming ad impressions being sold.

• AWS : Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google.
• E-Commerce : Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits.
• Advertising: Amazon's advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually.

Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for "new bets" the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost )and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we'll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030:

*Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions

How Amazon's Next 5 Years Could Play Out

We expect to see revenue growth of just over 11% and EPS of $5.74 for the year. We expect the stock to still trade at a similar multiple next year, putting our estimate for the stock price for Amazon at $287 in 2025, which is 68.25% higher than the stock is trading today.

Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $371, after revenue estimates to come in around 10% higher year-over-year. With an EPS of $7.42 and in our opinion the last year Amazon trades near its current P/E of 50, 2026 could mark the year Amazon starts trading at a more mature valuation closer to 35 times earnings. That would represent a 117.49% gain over today’s share price of $177.25.

Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase not to be as pronounced as more tempered growth is expected from Amazon and even with earnings estimates of $8.80 per share, the stock price target for the year is $308.00. That is a 17%-year hit from the previous year, but still up 80.56% from today’s stock price.

When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect Amazon to continue growing its top line at 10% but be more efficient and operating margins to grow. In 2028, we have Amazon’s revenue coming in around $957 billion and an EPS of $10.34 suggesting a stock price estimate at $361.90 or a gain of 112.16% over the current stock price.

24/7 Wall Street expects Amazon to continue its 10% revenue growth again and to generate $12.30 per share of earnings. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, the stock price in 2029 is estimated at $430.50, or a gain of 152.37% over today’s price.

Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030

We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $370 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 117.29% higher than the current stock price, marking a double in Amazon’s stock price today of $177.25.

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