Rivian (RIVN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030
By Joel South,
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Electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) IPO'ed in November 2021 and immediately made a splash with its stock price skyrocketing to $180 in just its first week of trading.
The cash infusion was a much-needed lifeline for Rivian, with $3.7 billion in operating expenses in 2021 and only delivering 920 vehicles. The company also had backers in Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN ) and Ford ( NYSE:F ) , who held 260 million shares of Rivian collectively at IPO.
But as the COVID lockdown investing frenzy died out, it left an SUV-sized hole in Rivian’s stock price, currently trading for $13.20 per share and down 83.08% since its IPO 3 years earlier.
24/7 Wall Street aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock prospects going forward, what growth we see in Rivian for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for Rivian's stock price each year through 2030.
Key Points in this Article:- Key growth drivers include cost reduction in EV components and increased production capacity, targeting profitability by 2027.
- Rivian aims to cut material costs by 45% with the introduction of its Gen 2 platform by 2026.
- If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report . The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.
The following is a table of Rivian's revenues, operating income, and share price for the first few years as a public company.
Here's a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018.
Share Price (End of Year) | Revenues | Operating Income | |
2021 | $50.24 | $55.0 | ($4,220.0) |
2022 | $19.30 | $1,658.0 | ($6,856.0) |
2023 | $10.70 | $4,434.0 | ($5,739.0) |
TTM | $15.35 | $4,997.0 | (5,790.0) |
Revenue and net income in $millions
Now let's take a look at Tesla the first few years it manufactured and sold the Model S (the official launch of the Model S was June 22, 2012).
Share Price (End of Year) | Revenues | Operating Income | |
2011 | $2.24 | $204.2 | ($251.5) |
2012 | $2.25 | $413.3 | ($394.3) |
2013 | $16.87 | $2,013.5 | ($61.3) |
2014 | $13.81 | $3,198.4 | ($186.7) |
While revenue growth for both firms after launching their first mass-market vehicles is similar, Tesla's operating expenses were much more favorable, particularly around SG&A and R&D expenses.
Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has always been a proponent of word-of-mouth marketing and a hawkish approach to minimizing product costs, allowing his company to stay afloat while moving to new lines of automobiles.
The biggest question facing Rivian investors today is, can they lower costs, and when will positive net income be realized?
- EV Technology and Cost Curves : Rivian's next generation (G2) R1 vehicles are designed for performance upgrades while at the same time reducing component costs. For example, the number of electronic components will be reduced by 60%, over 60 parts will be eliminated, the compact motor will be redesigned, and close to 2000 connections or welds will be removed. These changes alone are expected to drop materials costs by 20% and speed up the assembly line by 30%. Looking into the back half of 2026, Rivian sees a material cost reduction of 45% for the R2 line of vehicles. Rivian is also investing in enhanced advanced driver assistance systems with improved cameras, radar, and NVIDIA-powered computing power, creating highway assist and 360-degree visibility.
- Electric Vehicle Demand and Incentives: Rivian is currently delivering around 13 thousand vehicles per quarter, which is above analyst estimates, and producing 9 thousand new G2 vehicles per quarter, which keeps it on pace to produce 57,000 units in 2024. The total plant capacity is 215,000 vehicles with expansion plans of 400,000 additional vehicles in Georgia.
- Management's Path to Profits: Rivian also expects profitability from the R1 platform through premium configurations and scale benefits. The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA by 2027, with long-term goals of 25% gross margin, high teens adjusted EBITDA margin, and 10% FCF margin
- Material cost Reduction : The introduction of the Gen 2 platform and commercial cost downs are expected to reduce material costs by ~20%.
- Fixed Cost Reduction : Improved labor and overhead costs, reduced depreciation, and lower LCNRV charges due to a 30% increase in production line rate and design changes.
- Increased Revenue from Credits: Strong demand for regulatory credits, with over $200 million contracted for FY24.
Taking a historic look at pricing Rivian stock would start by comparing the sales multiples Tesla received in 2012 to 2015 when the Model S scaled. Tesla was feeling the weight of expansion and keeping its debt load manageable and the market-priced Tesla stock was close to 10x sales.
While Rivian is in a similar situation, albeit with more debt and higher expanses, the market is only valuing the stock at under 3 times sales. Let's take a look at why that is the case.
- Market Position and Brand Recognition :
- Tesla : By 2011-2015, Tesla had already established itself as a leading innovator in the electric vehicle (EV) market, with significant brand recognition and a first-mover advantage.
- Rivian : Rivian is relatively new to the market and still building its brand and market position.
- Production and Sales Volumes :
- Tesla : From 2011-2015, Tesla ramped up production and sales, particularly with the Model S, which was gaining popularity and market traction.
- Rivian : Rivian is still in the early stages of production, with limited sales volumes compared to Tesla's growth phase.
- Investor Expectations and Sentiment :
- Tesla : Investors had high expectations for Tesla's future growth and disruptive potential in the auto industry, leading to higher valuation multiples.
- Rivian : While Rivian has potential, it has not yet demonstrated the same level of market disruption or growth trajectory that Tesla did during its comparable early years.
- Competitive Landscape :
- Tesla : Had fewer direct competitors in the EV space during its early years, allowing for a larger market share and higher investor confidence.
- Rivian : Faces more competition from established automakers entering the EV market and other new entrants, impacting its relative valuation.
Year | Revenue | Shares Outstanding | P/S Est. |
2025 | $6,680.64 | 978 mm | 2x |
2026 | $10,675.45 | 978 mm | 2x |
2027 | $16,491.69 | 978 mm | 2.5x |
2028 | $25,124.38 | 978 mm | 2.5x |
2029 | $37,538.90 | 978 mm | 2.5x |
2030 | $49,394.84 | 978 mm | 2.75x |
Revenue in $millions
Rivian Share Price Estimates 2025-2030How Rivian's Next 5 Years Could Play Out
Wall Street analysts have Rivian's stock price over the next year to be $17.54 which gives the stock a 32.88% upside over today's price. Of the 28 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is a 2.1 'Outperform' Score.
We expect to see strong revenue growth of 60% for the year and a price to sales multiple of 2x, which puts our price target at $21.82.
Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $33.72, with another strong 50%+ revenue bump. However, with EBITDA still well in the negative, we see the market not rewarding the stock as much and giving it a lower valuation multiple.
Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase to leap forward to $64.30 with another strong 50%+ revenue growth year-over-year. That is a 97% year-over-year gain and up 387.12% from today’s stock price.
When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect Rivian's P/S ratio in 2028 to be 2.5x and top line growth of 50%. In 2028, we have Rivian's revenue coming in around $25 billion, suggesting a stock price estimate at $95.00 or a gain of 619.70% over the current stock price.
24/7 Wall Street expects Rivian's stock to continue its revenue growth and to generate $37 billion in revenue. The stock price in 2029 is estimated at $127.00, or a gain of 862.12% over today’s price.
Rivian Stocks Price Target for 2030
We estimate Rivian's stock price to be $140.00 per share. Our estimated stock price will be 960.61% higher than the current stock price of $13.20.
Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
2024 | $17.51 | Upside of 32.65% |
2025 | $22.00 | Upside of 66.67% |
2026 | $34.00 | Upside of 157.58% |
2027 | $64.00 | Upside of 384.85% |
2028 | $95.00 | Upside of 619.70% |
2029 | $127.00 | Upside of 862.12% |
2030 | $140.00 | Upside of 960.61% |
Recent Rivian Stock Updates and News
8/20/2024
Rivian has received approval to expand its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois. The centerpiece of the expansion will be a new 1.14 million square foot building, dubbed "R2", while the current facility will be increased by about 5%.
8/19/2024
Rivian recently introduced its new subscription service, Connect+, offering customers a 60-day trial to explore its features. While drivers can enjoy benefits like on-the-go music, satellite maps, and continuous Wi-Fi thanks to the car's ability to stay connected to a phone hotspot, some consumers are hesitant about having to pay for a monthly subscription.
8/16/2024
Rivian is facing supply chain challenges and has temporarily paused production of Amazon's Electric Delivery Vans (EDV). Amazon commissioned Rivian to build 100,000 of these vans for its commercial fleet, which already includes thousands operating in the U.S. and Europe.
8/15/2024
Rivian's latest move to improve their electric vehicles and user experience is to reposition charging ports for better compatibility with Tesla Supercharger stations. However, for those who tow or use equipment racks, this may pose a challenge.
8/14/2024
Apple and Rivian have teamed up to bring Apple Music to all Rivian vehicles through a software update. This gives Rivian a competitive edge over other automakers like GM and Tesla, which rely on their own in-car systems. However, accessing Apple Music and other new features will require a subscription to Rivian's new service, Connect+. This subscription-based service includes apps like Audible, Google Cast, and Apple Music, and will be available for both first- and second-generation R1 models.
8/12/2024
Over the past few months, Rivian has prioritized efficiency and cost reduction. The company has increased production speeds by 30% and cut manufacturing costs by up to 32%. This focus has already yielded results, with per-vehicle losses decreasing from $38,700 to $32,700 between the first and second quarters. Looking ahead, Rivian's vertically integrated software platform could be a key differentiator in the EV market.
8/9/2024
Rivian received initial approval from the Normal Planning Commission to significantly expand its manufacturing company in Illinois. The commission unanimously approved the company's site plans for a 208,000-square-foot addition to the existing plant, a new 1.14 million-square-foot building, and four new parking lots with over 2,700 spaces. The company expects the new additions will aid in the production of more affordable R2 electric vehicles. The Normal Town Council will make its final decision on the site plans on August 19th.
8/8/2024
This week's quarterly earnings report shows that Rivian is still losing money, but it is showing improvement. The company made more money overall in revenue during the quarter, but it still cost over $32,000 to make and sell each vehicle. However, this is less than last quarter, due to significant improvements in its truck production. Rivian's stock price declined yesterday following the quarterly results, but the company's leaders remain optimistic, intending to achieve positive gross profit by the fourth quarter.
8/7/2024
Rivian exceeded Wall Street's financial predictions for the second quarter. Although the company lost $1.46 billion in the second quarter, up from a loss of $1.2 billion the previous year, it maintained its yearly targets. Rivian expects to start making a profit on its vehicles by the end of the year.
8/6/2024
Some investors believe the stock price is on the rise due to its resemblance to an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern, which often precedes price increases. The likelihood of a price surge is increased if a "golden cross" occurs. Investors eagerly await Rivian's quarterly earnings report, scheduled for later today.
8/5/2024
The stock market as a whole is struggling today, but this is especially true for car companies and EV manufacturers. Investors are concerned about a potential recession in the U.S. due to the government's recent unemployment report. Additionally, Japan's interest rate hike has negatively impacted not only Japanese companies but also global markets. While tech companies have suffered the most, the entire market is struggling, including Rivian. However, the company is hopeful that its recent deal with Volkswagen can support its efforts to release newer and more affordable EV trucks.
8/2/2024
Rivian shares were down yesterday due to concerns about a possible recession. Recently released economic reports show that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits increased last week and that manufacturing is slowing down. A recession would drain Rivian's chase reserves faster and prevent the company from investing in new products. For now, investors eagerly await Rivian's updated cash balance announcement and second-quarter results on Tuesday, August 6th.
8/1/2024
Rivian received the highest score in the J.D. Power Study, disrupting Tesla's long-time reign. The study analyzes aspects of automobile ownership such as appearance, driveability, safety, and comfort. While Tesla has long been the top-rated EV car company, its scores are steadily falling, while Rivian's continue to increase.
7/31/2024
All eyes will be on Rivian when they report earnings on August 6th. Following Ford's recent update highlighting sluggish EV sales and escalating costs, investors will closely watch sales figures for the last quarter in addition to how well management has limited cost overages.
7/30/2024
Germany has approved the new joint venture between Rivian and Volkswagen, a partnership expected to begin by the end of this year. Both companies will own equal stakes in the new venture. In addition, the Bundeskartellamt competition authority approved Volkswagen's $1 billion investment in the company.
7/29/2024
Despite current market challenges, Rivian continues to hold steady. Over 100,000 people have already put money down for the company's upcoming R2, which is notably less expensive than Rivian's previous models, the R1S and R1T. To meet this anticipated demand, Rivian is updating its production line to increase output of the R2, intending to produce more R2s than the R1S and R1T combined.
7/26/2024
Although there has been a slight decrease in Rivian recently, overall shares have increased over the past month by 10.39%. Stock will likely continue to increase gradually, in part due to the recent announcement of a joint venture deal between Rivian and Volkswagen.
7/25/2024
Rivian stock decreased yesterday, in part due to its ongoing legal dispute with Tesla. A potential future loss in this lawsuit could result in significant financial repercussions for the company, which is a concern for investors. However, investors may want to wait for Rivian's financial report on August 6th for a clearer picture assessment of the company's overall situation.
7/24/2024
Used car prices for EVs are sluggish, among the worst of all road vehicles and new EV sales are also slowing. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe has a theory - It's a lack of choice. Scaringe said there is just not much variety in EV models under $50,000. As EV companies continue to run the technology curve and create lower-priced EVs, sales should pick up as EVs hit more markets.
7/23/2024
Rivian's next quarterly earnings will be August 6th and analysts are estimating ($1.201) earnings per share on $1.122 billion in revenue. Revenue should come in about the same as the last year's second quarter.
7/22/2024
Rivian announced five new vehicle models , expanding beyond the R1T and R1S to include a compact truck, smaller SUV, compact van, sedan, and wagon. This mirrors Tesla’s strategy of transitioning to mass-market vehicles and enhances Rivian’s competitiveness. The Volkswagen joint venture provides financial support and validates Rivian's innovative technology.
7/18/2024
Rivian's stock surged 40% since the $5 billion investment from Volkswagen and Rivian's recent delivery expectations exceeded estimates. The partnership aims to innovate and reduce costs, boosting optimism despite ongoing cash burn. Potential investors should consider the EV maker's promising growth amid financial risks.
7/17/2024
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas raised Rivian's price target to $17 from $13, seeing greater success as an automotive supplier than a standalone EV company. Jonas maintained an "overweight" rating, noting Rivian's path to profitability and its $5 billion Volkswagen investment for a joint venture on software-defined vehicle platforms.
7/12/2024
Mizuho analysts raised the price target for Rivian today to $15 from its previous price target of $11 and kept the "Neutral" rating on the stock. Mizuho was impressed with June vehicle deliveries and the firm adjusted the price target to reflect a better balance sheet and reduce some liquidity risk.
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