iPhone Success Is Key to Smartphone Future

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24/7 Wall St. Insights

• Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) is likely to lead a surge in global smartphone sales in the coming year.
• Foldable and AI-enabled phones are critical to the move.
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Widely regarded research firm Counterpoint believes that, after several years of poor results, global smartphone sales will rise this year and next. Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) is likely to lead this move and may even surpass Samsung as the top-selling smartphone in the world.

Smartphone sales worldwide have fallen for most years since 2017. In 2024, they are expected to rise 5% to 1.23 billion, and in 2025, they are expected to rise another 3%. AI-powered phones are critical to the improvement. However, “political turbulence” in the Middle East and part of Europe are considered headwinds. Growth in China, South Korea, and Japan will increase sales.

Another expected engine for growth is foldable smartphones. Their success will primarily be due to products from Chinese leaders, such as Huawei and Honor. If Apple enters this segment in 2027 as expected, it will grow even faster.

The good news about Apple is that its AI-enabled products will drive much of its future growth. Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Walia commented, “Apple’s AI (Apple Intelligence), available in its upcoming models, will boost GenAI devices in the whole smartphone market. It could create an opportunity for Apple to rise to the top in annual shipments as soon as in 2025.” That means it will move ahead of South Korea's Samsung.

Not everyone shares the optimism about Apple. Some experts believe that Apple’s AI iOS 18 will not be enough to offset the lack of differences between the iPhone 16 and iPhone 15. If Counterpoint is correct, Apple’s decision will be vindicated.

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