Amazon Stock (AMZN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030
By Joel South,
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Outside of NVIDIA’s ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) recent share price going stratospheric, Amazon ( NASDAQ: AMZN ) has been a Wall Street darling since the company IPO’d in May 1997 at a split-adjusted price of $.07.
Today, Amazon stock trades for $172.45, which means that stock is up over 176590.57% since May 1997, turning every $1000 invested into $1.767 million today.
The only thing that matters from this point on is what the stock will do for the next 1, 5, and 10 years and beyond. Let’s crunch the numbers and give you our best guest on Amazon’s future share price. No one has a crystal ball and even the Wall Street “experts” are often wrong more than they are right in predicting future stock prices. We will walk through our assumptions and provide you with the story around the numbers (other sites just pick a share price without explaining why they suggest the price they do).
Key Points in this Article:- Future stock performance hinges on Amazon's growth in e-commerce, AWS, and advertising amidst increasing competition.
- Amazon's revenue grew 540% in the last decade, with net income rising to $30.42 billion in 2023 and projections over the next 5 years at 4.5x.
- If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report . The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.
Here's a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2017.
Share Price | Revenues* | Net Income* | |
2014 | $19.94 | $89.0 | ($.241) |
2015 | $15.63 | $107.0 | $.596 |
2016 | $32.81 | $136.0 | $2.371 |
2017 | $37.90 | $177.9 | $3.03 |
2018 | $58.60 | $232.9 | $10.07 |
2019 | $73.26 | $280.5 | $11.59 |
2020 | $93.75 | $386.1 | $21.33 |
2021 | $163.50 | $469.8 | $33.36 |
2022 | $167.55 | $514.0 | ($2.72) |
2023 | $85.46 | $574.78 | $30.42 |
*Revenue and Net Income in Billions
In the last decade, Amazon's revenue grew about 540% while its net income moved from losing money to 30.42 billion in profits this past year. The ride up wasn't always smooth, however. For example, in 2020, sales jumped 38%, and net income nearly doubled. 2021 saw a continued boom as people moved to e-commerce shopping during Covid. However, all those sales being "pulled forward" led to challenges in 2022, and the company swung to a surprise loss. As Amazon embarks into the back half of the decade, a few different key areas will determine its performance.
3 Key Drivers of Amazon's Stock Performance- E-Commerce Success: While Covid brought record sales to Amazon, it also led to many competitors investing heavily to compete with Amazon online. While e-commerce is still just 15% of retail sales, putting up huge growth rates in online sales won't be as easy in the coming years as it was a decade ago.
- Amazon Web Services: Amazon Web Services 1st quarter 2024 revenue was $25.04 billion and the unit should break $100 billion in total sales this year. However, the unit’s 13% year-over-year growth isn't as fast as competing cloud services like Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Azure and Google's (Nasdaq: GOOGL) Cloud. Amazon is at risk of falling behind Microsoft before 2030 if it can't stop market share losses.
- Advertising: Amazon exits 2023 with a $47 billion advertising business that grew 24% in 2023. Advertising has the ability to be another high-margin business line - Amazon currently gets most of its profits from its AWS cloud business - which has led the company past $100 billion in annual profits.
The current consensus 1-year price target for Amazon stock is $218.23, which is a 26.55% upside from today’s stock price of $172.45. Of all the analysts covering Amazon, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.32 “Buy” rating.
24/7 Wall Street's 12-month forecast Amazon’s stock price to be $225. We see AWS continue its current 12% growth rate but see Amazon’s advertising business outperforming analyst expectations, particularly in the 4th quarter of 2024 with more streaming ad impressions being sold.
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Forecast Through 2030- AWS : Assuming AWS stems its market share loss and investments in AI to counterbalance the threat from Microsoft and Google.
- E-Commerce : Amazon continues to pour investments into e-commerce, forgoing added profits to maintain market share. Our case model assumes growth in new logistics and efficiencies from robotics in warehouses leads to this unit finally delivering strong operating profits.
- Advertising: Amazon's advertising continued to grow and the now $47 billion business unit and we see a high teens growth rate compounded annually.
Add all these numbers up and take out some amount for "new bets" the company will surely be investing in (and a potential dividend boost )and we see revenue in 2030 at $1.15 trillion and $131 billion in net income. Today, the company trades for about 50X earnings, which we'll take down to 35 times as the company matures (but continues showing growth). In our analysis, Amazon is worth $2.6 trillion in 2030. Here are our revenue, net income, and company size estimates through 2030:
Revenue | Net Income | Total Enterprise Value | |
2024 | $638 | $48.56 | $1.93 |
2025 | $710 | $62.13 | $2.12 |
2026 | $788 | $79.68 | $2.19 |
2027 | $867 | $96.53 | $2.29 |
2028 | $957 | $114.17 | $2.39 |
2029 | $1,049 | $136.69 | $2.5 |
2030 | $1,149 | $131.39 | $2.6 |
*Revenue and net income reported in billions and TEV in trillions
Amazon's Share Price Estimates 2025-2030How Amazon's Next 5 Years Could Play Out
We expect to see revenue growth of just over 11% and EPS of $5.74 for the year. We expect the stock to still trade at a similar multiple next year, putting our estimate for the stock price for Amazon at $287 in 2025, which is 66.43% higher than the stock is trading today.
Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $371, after revenue estimates to come in around 10% higher year-over-year. With an EPS of $7.42 and in our opinion the last year Amazon trades near its current P/E of 50, 2026 could mark the year Amazon starts trading at a more mature valuation closer to 35 times earnings. That would represent a 115.13% gain over today’s share price of $172.45.
Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase not to be as pronounced as more tempered growth is expected from Amazon and even with earnings estimates of $8.80 per share, the stock price target for the year is $308.00. That is a 17%-year hit from the previous year, but still up 78.60% from today’s stock price.
When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect Amazon to continue growing its top line at 10% but be more efficient and operating margins to grow. In 2028, we have Amazon’s revenue coming in around $957 billion and an EPS of $10.34 suggesting a stock price estimate at $361.90 or a gain of 109.86% over the current stock price.
24/7 Wall Street expects Amazon to continue its 10% revenue growth again and to generate $12.30 per share of earnings. With a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, the stock price in 2029 is estimated at $430.50, or a gain of 149.64% over today’s price.
Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030
We estimate Amazon’s stock price to be $370 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit. Our estimated stock price for Amazon will be 114.93% higher than the current stock price, marking a double in Amazon’s stock price today of $172.45.
Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
---|---|---|
2024 | $226.50 | Upside of 31.34% |
2025 | $287.00 | Upside of 66.43% |
2026 | $371.00 | Upside of 115.13% |
2027 | $308.00 | Upside of 78.60% |
2028 | $361.90 | Upside of 109.86% |
2029 | $430.50 | Upside of 149.64% |
2030 | $370.65 | Upside of 114.93% |
Recent Amazon Stock Updates and News
8/30/2024
Amazon's new-and-improved Alexa digital assistant will use the Claude AI model from Anthropic, as Amazon's current voice assistant is facing technical, bureaucratic, and competition challenges. Meanwhile, the UK is also investigating Amazon's $4 billion investment in Anthropic from last year.
8/29/2024
Amazon plans to launch a new version of its Alexa digital assistant in October. Unlike previous iterations, this update will require a paid subscription. The upgraded Alexa will offer enhanced features like AI-generated news summaries and personalized recipe suggestions based on dietary preferences. Users will still have access to the current version of Alexa for free.
8/28/2024
Amazon has abandoned its initial plan to invest $115 million in Diamond Sports Group. This deal, which was seen as a path for Amazon to become a significant player in NBA streaming, has now been terminated.
8/26/2024
Amazon has officially announced that it host its Prime Big Deal Days event in October. This exclusive event, featuring significant discounts and early holiday deals, is available only to Amazon Prime subscribers. Although exact dates have yet to be announced, last year's event was held the second week of October and this year's event will likely occur around the same time.
8/22/2024
Amazon is expanding its satellite processing facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center to speed up the launch of its broadband satellites. The company is investing $19.5 million for a new building at the facility, which will help meet its deadline to have half its 3,200 satellites in space by July 2026.
8/21/2024
India's commerce minister has accused Amazon of engaging in unfair business practices, particularly predatory pricing tactics. The minister expressed concern that the rapid growth of e-commerce could harm millions of small, traditional retail stores. Despite Indian regulations prohibiting direct sales by e-commerce companies, some small retailers claim that complex business structures have been circumventing these rules.
8/20/2024
Amazon is planning to buy Perceive, an AI company, for $80 million to help improve its own AI technology and cloud services. The acquisition is part of Amazon's plans to make its own AI faster and better, allowing the company to expand its work on smaller devices like smartphones.
8/19/2024
Amazon has been trying to revolutionize its delivery process by implementing package delivery drones, which would save money and reduce pollution. Recently, however, citizens of College Station, Texas -- one of the program's testing areas -- have filed complaints with the Federal Aviation Administration over the intense noise generated by the drones.
8/16/2024
Due to Rivian's supply chain issues, the production of Amazon's Electric Delivery Vans (EDV) is on hold. The company has been commissioned to produce 100,000 EDVS for Amazon's commercial delivery service, which already has several thousand running in the U.S. and Europe.
8/15/2024
Amazon is preparing for a new trial in the UK that will involve delivering packages using drones. These drones will be equipped with advanced navigation technology, eliminating the need for constant pilot supervision. In addition, the drones will utilize this technology to avoid collisions with other aircraft and ensure detectability. Beyond package delivery, Amazon aims to explore potential applications such as delivering medical supplies, inspecting offshore wind farms, and completing other tasks in hard-to-reach areas.
8/14/2024
Amazon has announced plans to build a new warehouse fulfillment center in Leeds, located near their existing UK warehouse in Wakefield. The building will house three stories and use advanced technology, with Amazon investing £500 million into the project. It is expected to create more than 2,000 new jobs, providing a major boost for the area.
8/12/2024
AWS announced its plans for a new expansion in Hyderabad, India. The new data center will be utilized for machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI).
Additionally, Amazon has already reached its renewable energy goals seven years earlier than the company initially planned. Amazon has over solar and wind projects -- the equivalent of powering around 7.6m homes in the U.S.
8/9/2024
Amazon has partnered with Pinterest Inc. and TikTok to introduce "social shopping". By linking their social media accounts to Amazon, customers can purchase Amazon products directly from within these platforms without needing to leave the app.
Additionally, Amazon is expanding its delivery fleet with Kia Souls to expedite deliveries, This move aims to streamline logistics and reduce costs for the company.
8/8/2024
British competition regulators are investigating Amazon for potential antitrust violations related to its recent partnership with the new tech company, Anthropic. This scrutiny comes as the United States, Britain, and the European Union formed a coalition in July to prevent large tech companies from acquiring smaller rivals, thereby stifling competition and consolidating excessive power within the industry.
Amazon maintains that its partnership with Antropic does not pose competitive threats to other companies. According to the company, the deal doesn't fulfill the criteria for the CMA's concerns, as Amazon holds no board seats or control over Anthropic. Amazon also emphasized that Anthropic remains free to collaborate with other companies.
8/7/2024
With its recent deal with the NBA, Prime Video continues to expand, adding Hollywood stars to its programming and set to capture a large share of the billion-dollar digital ad market. Analysts predict that Prime Video ads alone could bring in $3.3 billion this year, and potentially double in the next two years.
8/6/2024
Yesterday's significant stock market sell-offs reflected growing investor anxiety about a potential U.S. economic slowdown and decreased consumer spending. However, some experts suggest that investors may have overreacted. Statistics indicate that Amazon remains a primary online shopping destination for consumers. While Amazon Web Services (AWS) constitutes only 16% of the company's overall revenue, it generates 66% of its profits and is expanding at a faster rate than the rest of the company.
8/5/2024
The entirety of the stock market is struggling today as investors worry about a potential U.S. recession soon. Wall Street's "fear index", a measure of market anxiety, has reached its highest point in four years as traders rush to sell their stocks. In addition, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (^VIX), which measures market turbulence, reached its highest point since the pandemic.
According to market data, the Magnificent Seven suffered from a collective loss of $753 billion in value due to massive sell-offs. If it continues, this sell-off will mark the largest one-day loss ever recorded for the group.
8/2/2024
Amazon's stock price plunged more than 11% after the company released its quarterly earnings report yesterday. Although Amazon exceeded expectations by earning $1.26 per share (double the profit from the previous year), the report left many investors concerned. Sales for the second quarter reached $147.98 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the same period last year. However, this was slightly lower than what analysts had predicted. In addition, Amazon's projected sales for the third quarter are lower than analysts expected.
Despite this, Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its advertising business both saw significant growth. AWS brought in $26.3 billion in revenue, which is more than the expected $26 billion and significantly higher than the $22.1 billion from the same period last year.
8/1/2024
Prices of three of the original "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks -- Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft -- increased after today's stock market opened. Amazon stock has performed well this year, rising 20% compared to the S&P 500's 15% increase. The company is scheduled to release its second-quarter financial results after market close today. Experts anticipate Amazon's earnings to be approximately $1.03 per share, a 57% increase from the previous year.
7/31/2024
Amazon's stock price has declined by 6% over the last month as many investors have shifted their funds from larger tech companies to smaller ones. Despite this recent downturn, experts recommend purchasing Amazon stock now, as they anticipate a price increase soon. This advice is particularly compelling in light of tomorrow's expected quarterly earnings report. Wall Street is optimistic about Amazon's performance, forecasting a 2% revenue growth to $137.58 billion and a substantial 50% increase in earnings per share to 95 cents compared to the same period last year.
7/30/2024
Amazon's share price has declined by 6% over the past month, but the general sentiment toward the tech giant remains positive ahead of its quarterly earnings report, expected later this week. Analysts anticipate Amazon's revenue to reach around $148 billion this year, an increase of around 11% from last year's quarterly earnings of $134 billion.
7/29/2024
This morning Amazon stock prices opened at $182.50, a 0.62% gain from the closing price on Friday. In addition, this week Amazon will report its quarterly earnings on August 1st. Stock prices of many major tech companies like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon dropped significantly following the last earnings reports, and investors are on edge as they anticipate Amazon's announcement this week.
7/26/2024
Amazon stock is up by slightly over 1% today. The company's ongoing momentum continues as it forges new partnerships, including the recent collaboration with GE Healthcare. This partnership aims to leverage Amazon's cloud services (AWS) for AI applications and healthcare analyses.
7/25/2024
The National Basketball Association (NBA) announced a new deal with Prime Video yesterday, causing a rise in Amazon.com Inc. shares last night. Prime Video will begin telecasting NBA games during the 2025-2026 season and is expected to continue doing so through the 2035-2036 season.
7/24/2024
Amazon is down 2% to kick off trading today and down 9% in July to date as large tech giants continue to see increased sell-offs before 2nd quarter earnings reports start rolling in next week.
7/23/2014
Jeff Bezos plans to sell 25 million Amazon shares worth $5 billion. Despite the sale, Bezos retains a substantial stake, indicating confidence in Amazon's continued growth. Bezos currently still holds just shy of 9% of Amazon, which is over 900 million shares.
7/22/20214
Share price is down 7% in July for Amazon but the general sentiment is bullish for the tech giant before quarterly earnings on August 1st. Bernstein and Truist raised their price targets, citing strong North American sales, advertising revenue growth, and cloud service performance. Despite recent declines with other major tech stocks, Amazon continues to gain e-commerce market share.
7/18/2024
Amazon's stock price is down 4% today as more investors continue to shift out of big tech stocks and are moving to small-cap stocks as the "stock rotation" continues its momentum from the past few weeks. With earnings season underway, a few revenue and EPS beats will likely shift the momentum.
7/17/2024
Despite the excitement around AI, Amazon's Prime Day, which concludes today, could highlight its core retail business. Efficiency improvements and enhanced margins may drive the stock higher, providing justification for its 2024 rally and surpassing a $2 trillion market valuation.
7/12/2024
The NBA is nearing a TV rights deal with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon, potentially netting $76 billion over 11 years, though the deal isn't finalized. Amazon aims to attract Prime members and big-brand advertisers with NBA games, despite risks like the high $1.8 billion annual cost and potential internal budget impacts.
7/11/2024
With broad markets hitting all time highs and individual stocks continually hitting highs, stock splits have been in the forefront this year. Amazon is not a young buck in terms of stock splits having undergone 4 of them in their 30 year history: a 2-for-1 split on June 2, 1998; a 3-for-1 split on January 5, 1999; a 2-for-1 split on September 2, 1999; and a 20-for-1 split on June 6, 2022. While its unlikely a stock split will happen anytime soon, but some speculate Amazon should spin off parts of its business (particularly AWS).
7/10/2024
Amazon stock is up 30% so far this year and investors are looking toward August 1st to hear the state of the business, when they announce their 2nd quarter earnings. Currently Wall Street is looking at revenue coming in at $148.63 billion for the quarter with an EBITDA margin of 22.02%. The biggest catalyst for outperformance will be the success of Prime Day which kicks off next week, July 16th.
7/9/2024
Jefferies raised Amazon's price target from $190 to $225, citing strong trends in AWS and advertising. Analysts noted the company's commitment to cost efficiency through layoffs and optimization efforts, which are expected to boost margins and stock performance in 2024. Additionally, the Prime Video advertising launch is anticipated to significantly monetize Amazon's streaming assets.
7/8/2024
Amazon's share price hit $200, rebounding from $81.43 in January 2023. The path to $300 relies on strong performance in cloud computing, retail, and advertising. Key factors include achieving free cash flow targets, maintaining AWS growth, and potentially returning cash to shareholders through buybacks or dividends.
7/5/2024
Amazon is celebrating 30 years as a business and has grown into a vast global entity over that time with 175 massive fulfillment centers, a major media empire, a world leader in tech with AWS and still is putting up solid year-over-year growth figures.
7/3/2024
Jeff Bezos plans to sell 25 million Amazon shares worth $5 billion after the stock hit a record high. This follows an $8.5 billion sale in February, totaling $13.5 billion this year. Bezos, still has 912 million shares remaining.
7/2/2024
A recent Forbes article had concerns of Amazon keeping the momentum on its high annual revenue growth percentage with Microsoft Azure's market share growing. Amazon has always been a long term strategist and the company is earmarking over $100 billion on data centers over the next decade to grow its AI footprint. Amazon's next quarterly earnings will be on August 1st and we will be paying attention to comments about AWS and the arms race of AI computing power.
7/1/2024
Now that Amazon is a $2 trillion company here are three reasons the stock is still a buy:
- Strong Market Position : Amazon's dominance in e-commerce and cloud computing (AWS) provides a solid foundation for future growth.
- Innovation and Expansion : Continuous innovation in areas like AI and logistics, alongside expanding services, keeps Amazon ahead.
- Resilient Financials : Amazon's robust financial health, demonstrated by strong revenue growth and profit margins, supports its long-term potential.
6/28/2024
Amazon started off Friday at an all-time high once again and the e-commerce giant launched a plan to compete with lost cost competitors, like Temu and Shein, to attract budget-conscious consumers. Amazon plans on using its extensive logistical empire to deliver low cost goods faster and without compromising on price.
6/27/2024
On Wednesday, Amazon stock reached a market cap of $2 trillion for the first time ever. The stock is now up 25% in 2024 and moving ahead of analyst predictions by a wide margin.
06/26/2024
All eyes will be on Amazon July 16-17th as Amazon Prime Day kicks off two record sales day for Amazon's ecommerce sector. Investors will keep their eye on total sales numbers to gauge the health of consumer spending for the back half of the year.
Walmart's CFO John Rainey leaked sales are struggling and expects the second half of 2024 to be sluggish in a recent Bank of America Conference and Amazon Prime Day could give us an early look to see if the sales slowdown is specific to Walmart or more widespread.
In 2023, Amazon Prime Day brought in $12.9 billion in sales which was a 6.7% increase year-over-year. Estimates for 2024 will be over $13.5 billion in global sales.
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