Data tells Pirates Bednar can be dominant All-Star again

PITTSBURGH (93.7 The Fan) – It’s been a trying year on field for Pirates closer David Bednar. There are no talks of changes for 2025, only belief the two-time All-Star will find those performances again.

Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said during his show on 93.7 The Fan and the Pirates Radio Network on Sunday there is belief in Bednar. That belief is not just blind faith, rather Cherington said it’s in the numbers they gather after each outing.

“We’ve got a model that assess the quality of the individual pitches,” Cherington said on 93.7 The Fan. “We can do that objectively using all of the data that we have. You can use your eyes, too. What that information is telling us is that raw quality of his pitches has not changed. In some small cases, maybe it has improved over prior years.”

“That gives us a lot of belief that he’s got every opportunity to right back where he’s been in the past. We just can’t assume it’s going to happen. He’s going to have to do the work. We are going to have to do the work.”

This year has been work, after mowing through the last couple of seasons. In 2022, the righty averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings. In 2023, 39 saves and a 2.00 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. This season started with barely any opportunities in Spring Training. He was dealing with right lat tightness, but the prevailing sentiment was Bednar would work it out.

He wasn’t sharp from the beginning, scored on in four of his first seven appearances, his ERA was 13.50 and WHIP, 1.67. Once he got into May, he settled into a 2-1 record, 2.03 ERA, six out of six in save opportunities. He pitched well in June before an oblique strain put him back on the injured list. After a few decent outings, August was rough. He was 0-4 with three blown saves, 14 runs allowed in 10.2 innings with eight walks and 13 strikeouts. With the exception of a pair of three walk games in September, he appears to be closing in on the familiar David Bednar.

“There is an assortment of pitches there that should add up to success,” Cherington said on 93.7 The Fan and the Pirates Radio Network. “It certainly has over the previous several years. Then the question is, if that is true, then what is going on. Frankly we’ve been digging into that as much as we can all year. David himself has been.”

“I think you could point to maybe some location and command that hasn’t been as consistent or precise as it has in the past. You can point to occasionally some bad luck, balls that fell that didn’t fall in the past.”

Cherington said they are being very direct with the data in conversations with Bednar. They see what should be better results on his three main pitches, the fastball, split-finger and curve.

“He is certainly someone we believe, as we look towards next year, is going to go back to being a very important, valuable member of our bullpen and pitching at the end of games,” Cherington said.