Damaging Winds, Large Hail & Isolated Tornado Possible; Ohio Valley; July 15, 2024

Photo byNational Weather Force

Brief Outlook:

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Ohio Valley on Monday. The main threats include damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.

Regions Impacted: Ohio Valley

States: Indiana, Ohio

Cities: Indianapolis, Columbus

Detailed Forecast:

The Ohio Valley will experience severe thunderstorms driven by similar upper-level and surface dynamics as the Midwest. By early afternoon, thunderstorms will develop and intensify as they move into the region. A pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the Ohio Valley, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Upper 70s°F surface dewpoints and strong surface heating will create an environment with high instability (3500-4500 J/kg). The storms may organize into a progressive bow-echo system, producing a corridor of severe gusts and isolated tornadoes, especially in the enhanced risk area.

The upper-level flow will continue to support thunderstorm development as the surface cold front advances southeastward. The combination of strong mid-level westerly winds, low-level shear, and high instability will likely support severe thunderstorm development. Convective initiation is expected along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone, with the potential for storms to organize into a bow-echo system. This could lead to widespread damaging winds, with some gusts exceeding 75 mph, and a few isolated tornadoes.

Timing:

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Illinois by early afternoon around 1 PM, moving eastward into Indiana by mid-afternoon. Major cities such as Chicago will likely see storm impacts between 2 PM and 4 PM. As the storms continue to move eastward, Indianapolis will be affected by late afternoon around 5 PM. The storms are expected to reach Columbus, Ohio, by early evening around 6 PM, with activity gradually diminishing by 9 PM as instability decreases.

Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado (embedded) and lightning.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Sina⚡⚡

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