Texas Longhorns' quest to go over their 2024 win total depends on trips to Michigan and Texas AM

The Texas Longhorns have lofty goals in 2024 as they look to prove the program is fully back on the map. As if making the College Football Playoff wasn't enough to make it clear: Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns back as a power. But now, the weekly challenge in the SEC is different as the college football landscape evolves.

Texas' 2024 win total reflects their new task of surviving one of the tougher schedules in the nation. Quinn Ewers, Sarkisian, and even Arch Manning will be under the spotlight throughout this season. Let's look at the Longhorns' win total play for 2024.

Why the Texas Win Total Favors the UNDER

Current Fanduel Sportsbook odds have Texas +144 to go OVER 10.5 wins and -178 to go UNDER. That means the Longhorns aren't expected to hit the 11-win mark, losing at least two games throughout the season. This would be a step down from their 2023 regular season record.

However, the quality of their schedule is a big factor. Texas lost significant talent to the NFL, including their powerful defensive tackle tandem of Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat. The offense will be loaded and effective, but the defense faces tough questions and challenges.

The OVER would certainly be the contrarian pick based on the odds. I agree with going UNDER, as the Longhorns weren't a great defensive team beyond the front four last year, anyway. They didn't have a premier edge rusher or defensive back.

Adding safety Andrew Mukuba from Clemson will help but doesn't fully solve the issues at cornerback that will be more exposed. The hope is that Trey Moore, who was super productive at UTSA, will be a major pass-rush threat who mitigates Murphy's absence.

Texas 2024 Schedule

1. Colorado State
2. at Michigan (8)
3. UTSA
4. ULM
5. Mississippi State
6. Oklahoma (neutral site) (16)
7. Georgia (1)
8. at Vanderbilt
9. Florida
10. Arkansas
11. Kentucky
12. at Texas A&M (20)

Four games should decide Texas' upside in 2023. Oddly enough, I don't think Texas will have to play the game of its life at Michigan despite this being a high-profile matchup. Michigan is in the midst of a roster overhaul and should lose several games this season, including this one.

But Oklahoma and Texas A&M are much closer to toss-ups where Texas can't get in its own way. Their stunning 34-30 loss to Oklahoma last year revealed that this roster is good but has vulnerabilities. Can Ewers mitigate those concerns when teams match their physicality and have a good pass rush?

I have my questions, and the Georgia game will likely end poorly for Texas based on what we know right now. The Longhorns must force key turnovers and avoid their mistakes in that matchup. Texas A&M is another game I think it's more likely than not this team stumbles.

What Could Go Wrong for Texas?

Although Texas brings back 70 percent of its production , CJ Baxter just suffered a season-ending injury, the wide receiver room was completely turned over, and the defense lost all of its best contributors. A solid handful of playmakers enter the program from elsewhere, but those are unknowns until we see it.

Losing at Michigan would all but erase Texas's advantage in a very favorable early-season slate. They don't face another quality opponent until the Red River Rivalry. If they don't have Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Moore playing their best by then, the Longhorns could be in major trouble for the real meat of their schedule.

Does Texas have enough high-end talent to compete with top foes? I don't see it unless the secondary steps up in a major way. Ewers must also become more of a playmaker and less of a high-end game-manager, where he's currently at now.

I think the UNDER makes too much sense, but Texas can still make the CFP as an at-large bid.