Every offseason, multiple rankings are released, forecasting everything from breakout stars, to top returners and everything in between. One of the more interesting discussions always centers around college football coaches, and their rankings amongst their peers.
For many years, former Alabama head coach Nick Saban pretty much owned the top spot. Then Georgia’s Kirby Smart made his move as the top head coach in the nation. The hierarchy following that top spot is also an interesting debate, with Oregon head coach Dan Lanning seeing his name steadily near the top.
An extremely promising young coach who has gone 22-5 in two years in Eugene, Lanning has received a lot of notoriety for his outward personality and swagger. The former Georgia defensive coordinator has quickly garnered a big reputation, considered by many to be a rising star. The question, however, must be asked: Is the rankings and reputation warranted?
A 22-5 overall record, typically, could speak for itself. When you comb through those results, the premier wins just aren’t there right now. In fact, there isn’t really even that impressive of a win when you consider context.
During the 2022 season, Lanning’s first with the Ducks, they went 3-3 against top 25 ranked teams. Those three wins came against (12) BYU, (9) UCLA and (10) Utah. The victory over the Utes was by far the most impressive, but both BYU and UCLA ended up underachieving compared to what people those they were, ending with 8-5 and 9-4 records respectively.
The three losses came against Georgia, Washington, and Oregon State. That loss to the Beavers was a big disappointment, especially when you compared the two rosters on paper to the other. Losing to Georgia in your first game as a head coach was nothing to be ashamed about, although a 49-3 throttling is never a great sight.
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On paper, the 2023 season was an improvement in the biggest games of the season. The Ducks finished with a 4-2 record against top 25 teams, but once again, context shows that those victories were not as great as they were once thought. Of those four victories, one came against Colorado who was No. 19 at the time of the game. Of course many forget about that ranking, considering they finished with a 4-8 record.
Oregon also beat Utah and Oregon State, both of which finished with a 8-5 overall record. Their best victory, I suppose, was their bowl game blowout over the Group of Five champion Liberty Flames. While Liberty put together an impressive 13-0 record going into that game, their most impressive victory came against… New Mexico State?
That isn’t exactly the marquee win that a program like Oregon would typically boast about. Now they enter the 2024 season as a part of the Big Ten conference. A lot more challenges are ahead.
Without question, Lanning’s biggest chink in his armor so far is his difficulties against Washington. Led by new Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer, Lanning was 0-3 against the Huskies in his first two seasons. That included a PAC-12 championship game loss this past season, a game that many had Oregon as heavy favorites. They seemed destined to get into the playoffs, with the upside to make a lot of noise.
Unfortunately, they fell short. In those two games against Washington last season, there were key poor coaching decisions in inopportune times.
In all, Oregon has a 7-5 record against top 25 teams in two seasons under Coach Lanning. Things appear to be trending in the right direction, but more progress is needed. In order for him to validate that ranking, a couple big wins will need to come.
From a recruiting perspective, Lanning has seemed to take the program to another level. Along with Phil Knight’s open checkbook, they are attracting a lot of talent out west. That isn’t something that has been much of an issue, even under Mario Cristobal. The cupboard was definitely not bare when Lanning took over.
In fact, one funny note is that if you take the last two full years under Coach Cristobal (excluding the abbreviated 2020 COVID-19 campaign), the Ducks went 22-5 with a 12-2 record in 2019, and a 10-3 record in 2021. Christobal even won a PAC-12 championship (two actually!), something Lanning wasn’t able to accomplish.
Is there a true parallel being painted there? No, not exactly but it was still very interesting.
The upside for the Ducks program does seem to be on a whole other level under Lanning, at least from a national perception. but this is a friendly reminder that we are still in the infancy of his tenure. Could it be outstanding? For sure, but to act like Lanning or the program has arrived is pretty premature. In fact, the 2024 season is going to be an indicator for just where they’re going, and how quickly they’ll get there.
People love Lanning, and the cigar gifs will most certainly continue to flow. Let’s just hope we get one of those images after winning a big game sometime soon. It might actually mean something.
Oregon heads into the season ranked as the No. 3 team on the preseason AP poll. A lot is expected in 2024, and most of it is based on the talent the Ducks have coming back. With a deep playoff run seemingly on the horizon, a lot will be dependent on Coach Lanning being the coach most people think he is - already.
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