LSU Tigers will beat the USC Trojans in Week 1 of College Football action if they take care of 3 keys to victory
By Travis May,
2024-08-28
The LSU Tigers of 2024 are set to look quite different than 2023. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and more than half their primary defensive line contributors from last season are gone. So how will they beat the USC Trojans in Week 1 with a brand new offensive set of playmakers and a defense that was already ranked outside the top 100 in several categories a year ago? Let's dive into the three keys to victory that will absolutely make it happen.
LSU's elite offensive line handles USC's defensive front
First off, LSU is actually favored at the majority of sports books by 4 to 4.5 points against USC this week. It's not that they're actually underdogs here. But if they're going to pull off the victory, the strengths of their team are going to have to show up and dominate.
The most obvious strength of the 2024 LSU Tigers is their offensive line. The offensive tackle tandem of Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. looks like the best duo in the nation. Their guard play should be strong again (especially if Miles Frazier is good to go this week). But the real key will be DJ Chester, the team's new starting center. Brian Kelly has been very complimentary of him all off-season long, and he has "done a much better job over the last few weeks" stacking good days together showing consistency. If Chester is ready to ball, there's no way USC's defensive line stands a chance.
If LSU can just focus on stopping Bear Alexander, USC's one difference maker at defensive tackle up front, giving Garrett Nussmeier time to throw, and creating some gaps for the unproven running backs to run through, LSU should take control of the game early on.
LSU's Unproven Secondary Gels Together
However, even if the offensive line does dominate USC's defensive line, LSU's defense has got to be much better on the back end if they want to slow down the Trojans aerial attack. Miller Moss and the Trojans just tossed six passing touchdowns in their bowl game to end last season. Lincoln Riley's passing attacks are always potent. If LSU can't do better than allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt (ranked 106th last season in FBS) it's going to be a long day.
Ashton Stamps, Sage Ryan, and Major Burns all seem to be gelling together this offseason as the team's primary cornerbacks and "star" positional players. It's the safety position that might be a real question. Jordan Allen has reportedly improved greatly this spring and summer, but he played less than 100 snaps last year. And while Texas A&M transfer Jardin Gilbert played over 700 snaps in 2022 he missed most of last year due to injury. If this group is on the same page early that would go a long way towards stopping USC's strong passing game.
LSU's Defensive Line Surprises with New Star Players
Maason Smith, Jordan Jefferson, and Mekhi Wingo are now in the NFL. LSU's defensive front is going to look drastically different this year.
Bradyn Swinson is the only returning edge defender with a pass pressure rate above even 10%. Jacobian Guillory, who played only about a quarter of the team's snaps in 2023, is the most experienced returning defensive tackle. Maybe the defensive line sees transfer Gio Paez step up and become a star. Perhaps Sai'vion Jones, Da'Shawn Womack, or Paris Shand step up with much higher success rates in pass rush. Or maybe five star Dominick McKinley eventually becomes a star at defensive tackle, but that's not likely to happen in Week 1.
To truly ensure victory, LSU is going to need at least one (or more) defensive front players to star right away. USC's best offensive lineman Jonah Monheim just moved from tackle to center and the unit has a whole has some questions. It shouldn't be an insurmountable feat to bring pressure against the Trojans offensive line group. But it has to happen if LSU wants to give their questionable secondary a chance.
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