Minnesota Vikings X-factor for 2024 season is the newcomer you wouldn't expect

The Minnesota Vikings feel to many like they are in a pivotal year for the tenure of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell . It's year three and they are coming off a 7-10 season where very little went right, especially on the injury front.

As we look at the 2024 season, the Vikings are viewed as the last place team by both analysts and the betting odds, as the Vikings win total is last in the division at either 6.5 or 7.0 wins depending on the sports book. They could surprise a lot of people with a really good season with the top-end talent they have.

Jonathan Greenard named X-factor for Minnesota Vikings

When you look at the Vikings' roster, there is a lot of top-end talent. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the National Football League, left tackle Christian Darrisaw and tight T.J. Hockenson are considered top-five at their respective positions and they have the quarterback of the future in J.J. McCarthy.

They aren't who ESPN's Ben Solak named the X-factor for the Vikings in 2024. That belongs to edge rusher Jonathan Greenard.

The Vikings were happy to pay Greenard to be just that: solid with all-around quality. Brian Flores' blitz-heavy approach doesn't rely on edge rushers to be elite individual pass rushers, so Minnesota elected to sign Greenard to a $72 million, four-year contract, while Houston let Greenard walk to sign ex-Viking Danielle Hunter to a two year, $49 million deal.

Though the logic of the switch is sound, that's still 16.5 sacks walking out of the door in Hunter. Hunter is a sack artist, and sacks are drive-ending plays. Greenard cannot be just a quality edge defender with a nice 8.5 sack season -- the Vikings' defense will feel the absence of those sacks. He must win those one-on-ones he gets when Flores' fronts mess with protection rules; he must clean up on discombobulated quarterbacks who have avoided the first pressure from a bullet blitzer. If Greenard can bring the 12.5 sacks he tallied in Houston, he'll fill his role nicely, and this defense will continue to grow in Flores' second season. With a season-ending injury to J.J. McCarthy and expected hiccups on offense under Sam Darnold, the onus on the defense to win games just got a lot bigger.

Solak mentions the logic of the switch from Hunter to Greenard, but he didn't mention the most important element of the switch. Greenard is significantly faster off the ball than Hunter is. That matters so much more in Flores' defense than it did under former Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer.

Flores runs a scheme predicated on aggressive blitzes and getting pressure quickly. When it works, it's tremendous. When it doesn't, you'll have Justin Herbert torching you for over 400 passing yards in a 28-24 loss. Greenard is one of the quicker edge rushers off the ball and he has the long arms to give hm the leverage battle as well. Said long arms could give Flores the ability to move him inside on pass rush downs to keep things interesting and versatile.

If Greenard plays up to his contract and potentially beyond, the Vikings could see a lot of success in 2024.

Related: "We're always trying to learn" Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah open up about 2022 NFL Draft and beyond