The Michigan Wolverines' offense looked clunky and out of sync for most the game against the Fresno State Bulldogs. The game was 10-3 at halftime and was too close to feel comfortable until Will Johnson's pick-six iced the game to a 30-10 win.
Michigan mustered just 121 yards through the air and 148 yards on the ground, buoyed by Kalel Mullings' 92 yards on the day. Mullings had 36 of those 92 on two plays in the fourth quarter.
These numbers just won't play at all for a major Power 5 program. Unfortunately, the Wolverines just don't have a lot of time to get right, as the Texas Longhorns march into Ann Arbor in Week 2. Fresh off of a 52-0 drubbing of Colorado State, the #3 Texas Longhorns are the favorites heading into this one.
Michigan's defense boasts plenty of firepower to match Texas's offense. The question is: Can Michigan's offense keep them in the game long enough for it to matter?
The Passing Game
Michigan's passing game isn't even close to as robust as it was last season. Even as someone who was a relative skeptic of J.J. McCarthy, the drop-off is startling.
I can see why the Wolverines went with Davis Warren to start at quarterback. If you squint hard enough, there's enough of a game-manager in there to more or less keep the offense going.
The problem with that? Warren barely operated the offense.
Far too often, he made one read he thought he had pre-snap and he threw it, right or wrong.
On this throw, Warren initially reads Cover 1, which makes the slot fade he throws the right one. However, it's Cover 3, and the corner drops right into the throw. The stop route at the top of the play comes wide open, but Warren doesn't see it because he's pre-determined where the throw is going.
Things like this happened frequently throughout the game. It could be a case of Michigan wanting the offense dumbed down, but Texas will take advantage of those opportunities. They have the talent to turn those incompletions into interceptions and the scheme to fool Warren like that repeatedly if he keeps at it.
How does Michigan mitigate this? I think the first step has to be improving on first down.
By my count, the Wolverines had 28 total plays on first down against Fresno State. Of those 28, 17 of those went for four or fewer yards with one interception. In total, they generated 119 yards on those 28 plays, with 36 coming on two runs on their final drive of the game. Without those two runs, they tallied just 83 yards on 26 total plays.
For Warren to get more comfortable, they have to be better here. If they want to keep him from making too many reads, create easy plays for him on first downs. Things like screens, slants, touch passes, and the like would let him get into a rhythm quicker and likely generate more than running into a loaded box routinely.
Michigan boasts the best tight end in the country in Colston Loveland. He was their main target, but they could do even more to get him involved in the offense. Put him in motion to free him up off the line of scrimmage, keep hammering away with him out wide, get him the ball in quick game more. He's an elite receiving threat who will help draw attention away from the rest of their receivers.
The Run Game
I don't have a whole lot to really say here other than they have to change how they use Donovan Edwards. He posted 27 yards on 11 carries with his longest run being a whopping seven-yard gain. Edwards did not post a single missed tackle forced and generated zero explosive plays.
Edwards has his weaknesses, but a good coaching staff adjusts to mitigate those. The next adjustment has to be to keep him away from inside the tackles.
In my opinion, Kalel Mullings is a significantly better runner between the tackles than Edwards is. His vision and quick feet let him find cutback lanes and holes quicker than Edwards does. He's a more decisive runner than Edwards is as well.
Related: Why Donovan Edwards will be the one key to Michigan Wolverines success under new head coach Sherrone Moore
I'd like to see Michigan get Edwards going on more gap/power runs. Concepts like counter, Duo, pin-pull, G-Lead, and the like would let him get downhill quicker and simplify the game for him. In these runs, he can simply follow his blockers and then turn on his speed to generate big plays.
They obviously can't exclusively run one style of run with different running backs, but if you're going to rely on these two, you have to play to their strengths.
The offensive line settled in as the game went on, even if I'm hesitant to say it's anywhere close to last year's unit.
Final Thoughts
I simply don't think Michigan can operate like they did last year. They don't have the same ability to be an efficient unit that keeps chugging along. If they try the same approach with Texas, that game will get out of hand quickly, even if I am a skeptic of their defense approaching last year's unit.
Michigan's focus should be to find and generate explosive matchups. If they can generate enough of those to keep their defense rested, score points, and flip field positions, this one could be closer than many might anticipate. That is a big IF, however, and the staff will have to prove they meant what they said about the limited playbook in Week 1.
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