Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has made it an uncomfortable tradition to start the regular season on the wrong foot. This past Sunday proved to be no different as Burrow posted just 164 yards on 21-29 passing in a 16-10 loss to the New England Patriots.
The Bengals are now 1-8 in the first two weeks of regular season play with Burrow leading the charge. Losses in previous seasons have been excused away due injuries hindering offseason preparation, but Burrow can't use that crutch after a training camp full of reps leading up to this dud.
While Burrow's typical accuracy was backed by a 72% completion rate, his aggressiveness was not . His average depth of target of 5.9, according to Pro Football Focus , was barely higher than his 5.7 yards per attempt. Only six of his passes went beyond 10 yards the whole game.
There are a handful of throws that should’ve joined that group. One in particular stood out upon further review.
Setting the scene
The Bengals have just gotten the ball back from the Patriots early in the third quarter. Both teams had fully settled in at this point. New England has a 10-0 lead, and the aggressiveness meter should be very high for Cincinnati. Points were nearly had in the second quarter following a Mike Gesicki drop in the end zone and a Tanner Hudson fumble at the goal line.
On this drive, the Bengals did something they haven't done all game. They turned a second down into a first down instead of taking all three plays in a series. Progress!
A first-and-10 at the Patriots' 44-yard line is ahead of Burrow. 12 personnel is on the field with both tight ends staying in pass protection. Andrei Iosivas will run a deep over from the slot. Ja'Marr Chase will run a deep comeback at the X. Chase Brown will release to the flat out of the backfield.
The play
With the Patriots only rushing four, the Bengals give Burrow plenty of time to look downfield. He found that the middle of the field was overrun by zone coverage, taking Iosivas out of the play. The linebacker initially lined up over Iosivas didn't carry the second-year receiver's route and is staying in a hook/curl zone underneath, putting him in position to pick up Brown coming out of the backfield.
All of this gives Chase a one-on-one on the boundary against a cornerback. The route will take a few seconds to fully develop, but with Chase's speed, he turns the corner's outside leverage against him and is open upon breaking from the top of the route.
By the time this happens, Brown already caught the pass and was immediately tackled for a three-yard gain.
The text from the tweet/post says it all. Push the ball down to the boundary!
If that one-on-one exists with your best receiver ( whom only had six targets ), and the time to make the throw was there, why wasn't the throw made? No post-snap tricks were deployed by the Patriots here. There should be no second-guessing in the pocket.
Burrow didn't look to be second-guessing. He decided at the top of his drop to check it down to Brown.
Targeting short of the sticks was simply the theme of the day.
Living to see another day in the form of safe throws is sometimes necessary against certain defenses in certain game situations. Overdoing it leaves your offense relying on long drives that give defenses more chances to make stops.
This was the last first-down play of the drive. The Bengals would turn the ball over on downs in Patriots territory three plays later. Another first down would've gotten them in field goal range and changed the dynamic of how the second half unfolded.
When explosive plays, or, in this case, near-explosive plays present themselves, Burrow and the Bengals have to take advantage every single time. Days like Sunday are the result if they don't.
Many have pointed to Burrow's wrist as the reason for him not wanting to throw beyond the sticks as much. When Burrow did push the ball down the field, the throws didn't look any different from years past. An offseason full of throwing and high remarks from training camp are hardly evidence to support his wrist not being at a point where he can't function normally.
Bringing up Burrow's prior early-season struggles is relevant because the same passiveness has existed regardless of his health. His intended air yards per attempt in the first two weeks of the past three years (6.1) is a half-yard lower than his season-long average (6.6) covering the same timeframe.
You could attribute getting over fresh injuries in recent years to Burrow not playing like the aggressive version of himself that comes out in the final three months of the year. There should be no medical reason why Burrow isn't comfortable looking downfield more often right now.
Was he seeing ghosts? The Patriots did sack him twice early on in the game, but the pocket shown above was abnormally massive. After a full quarter of staying upright, it's illogical to defend the quick release with zero threat of pressure around him.
The only logical conclusion is this may be who he is at the beginning of any season. Not wanting to test defenses as much and living and dying underneath before his groove arrives in the heart of the season.
That's not gonna fly this time with the Kansas City Chiefs next on the docket.
If Burrow's tape is filled with plays like on Sunday, a six-point loss might be the best possible outcome for Cincinnati. The real Joe Burrow needs to come out much earlier than he's used to.
Related: Bengals Week 1 Snap Count Takeaways: Ja'Marr Chase keeps his word, defensive line needs more rest
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