12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions heading into Week 4 features far too many SEC teams

The 12-Team College Football Playoff is fast approaching as the regular season is already a quarter of the way over. Win-loss records are beginning to take shape. The true contenders are beginning to emerge. Which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?

Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other things we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.

But in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field.

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

• The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
• Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
• The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
• If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 4 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

1. Texas (13-0 SEC Champion)
2. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
3. Miami (12-1 ACC Champion)
4. Kansas State (12-1 Big 12 Champion)

First Four Matchups

• #12 Memphis (12-1 AAC Champion) at #5 Alabama
• #11 Utah at #6 Georgia
• #10 Oregon Ducks at #7 Tennessee
• #9 Ole Miss at #8 Penn State

First Four Out

• USC
• Missouri
• Louisville
• Clemson

#12 Memphis at #5 Alabama

Alabama defeats Memphis by more than three possessions, easily.

Fresh off a victory over Florida State, Memphis now has a clear path to push for a completely undefeated season. Even if they falter somewhere on their schedule now but inevitably win the AAC Championship, they would still likely be one of three teams in the final mix for the 12-seed (perhaps Boise State and Liberty)

However, that wouldn't help them when it actually came time to face off against Alabama's monstrous roster of nothing but four and five star elite athletes. Jalen Milroe's mobility alone would have the entire Memphis defense on skates.

LT Overton is creating pressure on nearly 25% of his pass rushes. Jihaad Campbell is tallying over 10 tackles per game and allowing just 2.5 yards per reception. Keon Sabb has four collective passes defended already, playing like the perfect Caleb Downs replacement. Every level of the Crimson Tide defense will shut the Memphis Tigers down.

Related: Alabama QB Jalen Milroe receives some hardware after dominating the Wisconsin Badgers

#11 Utah at #6 Georgia

Georgia's clear talent edge proves too much for Utah.

When Cam Rising is healthy for Utah they're a force to be reckoned with. And after this past week's performance by Isaac Wilson (Zach Wilson's younger brother) at QB, it seems the Utes have multiple options to lead them to success this season. Utah even has a trio of surprisingly talented pass-catchers this year that should help them push towards the 12-Team Playoff too.

However, when it comes time to face one of the most talented rosters in the country Georgia will have an edge here. Trevor Etienne showed he could completely take over a game this past week against Kentucky with 50+ yards on a single drive to seal the win late for Georgia. Jalon Walker is somehow bringing pass rush pressure over 30% of the time. Georgia's defense is collectively giving up just 3.5 yards per play after playing Clemson and Kentucky already. This game likely won't be super close in Athens.

#10 Oregon at #7 Tennessee

Nico Iamaleava and unstoppable Vols offense defeats Oregon.

Oregon fixed their offensive line woes against Oregon State, and should take care of every single team on their schedule outside of Ohio State. Their playmakers (Evan Stewart, Tez Johnson, Jordan James), experienced quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, and good-not-great defense so far should earn them a playoff spot.

Tennessee's offense could potentially be better than anything the Ducks will face all season long. True sophomore phenom Nico Iamaleava and the Vols offense have averaged well over 600 yards of offense per game. And about a quarter of the time the Vols are trotting out backups in junk time because they're ahead by more than 30 points so far. Josh Heupel's scheme, the deep wide receiver room, and the explosive rushing attack prove impossible to keep up with for the Ducks.

#9 Ole Miss at #8 Penn State

Jaxson Dart, his elite wide receivers, and their revamped defensive front do just enough to edge out Penn State in a white out playoff game.

Penn State is finally seeing more of what they need to from former five star quarterback Drew Allar. He's averaging over 17 yards per completion with a much higher explosive play rate. Most every single key rate stat is much improved across the board. Their stacked defensive front needs to be a bit more efficient with the pressure thus far, but overall Penn State looks primed to push towards a potential Big Ten Conference Championship game appearance.

With that said, Ole Miss looks unbelievably good thus far, and even better in the areas that look like Penn State's strengths. Jaxson Dart is officially the most efficient quarterback in the nation thus far thanks to his elite quartet of playmakers in Tre Harris, Juice Wells, Caden Prieskorn, and Cayden Lee. When you mix that with perhaps the most impressive and productive set of edge rushers in the nation? Ole Miss pulls off a close one in a white out game at Penn State.

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas vs #9 Ole Miss

Texas and their depth of high pedigree studs and key transfers do enough to hold off Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss.

Texas has looked like the best team in the entire country through three weeks. And it doesn't even matter who their starting quarterback is, they're going to find a way to dominate whoever they play. Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning have already dominated the competition thanks to Texas' unreal set of playmakers and supporting cast.

Isaiah Bond should be a first round wide receiver next spring. The offensive line has a few future pros. The defense looks unstoppable with Anthony Hill Jr. leading the way at linebacker. Ole Miss will have answers against most any team in the nation, but not the Longhorns.

Related: Early returns indicate where Texas QBs Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning are looking for passing targets

#2 Ohio State vs #7 Tennessee

Ohio State's returning hoard of elite talent shocks Tennessee with their top tier play at every position.

Ohio State's best 22 starters probably have about 15 or 16 future NFL Draft picks playing every single week. That amount of top tier talents is going to be tough for Tennessee to matchup against. The Vols have a future first round pick at quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, some strong wide receivers and running backs, and a couple elite defenders, but that won't be enough just yet against Ohio State's stacked squad. This could be much closer than expected given the Vols' offense, but the Buckeyes project to hold on.

#3 Miami vs #6 Georgia

Georgia hands Miami a huge wake up call after the Hurricanes largely play an embarrassingly weak schedule all year long.

Cameron Ward is already off to a hot start as a clear top three quarterback in the nation alongside Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe. If any quarterback could do enough to will his team to victory he might be the one. However, Georgia's defense will be stronger and deeper than anything they face this season, even if they get Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Georgia likely wins in the trenches on both sides of the ball and controls this game, which might be close until a late break through from the Bulldogs.

#4 Kansas State vs #5 Alabama

Avery Johnson will be a household name after (or perhaps before) this game, but Kansas State's depth of talent is no match for Alabama.

Avery Johnson is flashing early career Lamar Jackson (at Louisville) upside. Yes, his inconsistencies as a passer are frustrating at times, but his game-changing mobility should take over games all year long. However, when faced with Alabama's bevy of behemoths who run just as fast as he does the Kansas State hype train will screech to a halt. Jalen Milroe is everything Avery Johnson is, plus more explosion and better deep passing based on the numbers that matter most. Alabama should handle the Wildcats fairly easily.

Semifinals

#1 Texas vs #5 Alabama

Texas wins what is a rematch of the SEC Championship Game.

Based on remaining schedules and how the teams have played thus far it's actually quite likely that Texas and Alabama face off against each other in both the SEC Championship game and the semifinals of the playoff (should they both make it there). And while it's always tough to be a good team twice in the same year, Texas' depth actually good enough to pull it off. Alabama's emerging true freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams likely goes off in this game proving to be the most productive true freshman wide receiver of all time (and at age 17), but ultimately the Longhorns pressure Milroe enough to hold on.

#2 Ohio State vs #6 Georgia

Ohio State and Ryan Day get their semifinals revenge from a couple years ago, but this time the Buckeyes win handily.

In a year where Kirby Smart has expressed worry about depth at key positions on his team, this is the first game where that actually proves to be a problem. Ohio State's defensive front should give Georgia's offensive line issues all game long (as Kentucky's just did). The defensive backs for the Buckeyes should have a decisive advantage against Georgia's wide receivers. This is the first game in over three years where the Bulldogs truly look human, losing by perhaps a touchdown or even more.

Championship

#1 Texas vs #2 Ohio State

This should be the ultimate game of the year scenario that everyone hopes to see (if their team can't make it). There are incredible matchups across every single position group.

Texas wide receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden against Ohio State defensive backs Denzel Burke and Caleb Downs. True freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith is already looking like Julio Jones. Can any Texas defensive back stick with him?

The dynamic duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson matching up in space against future first round linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and a trio of speedy Longhorn defensive backs.

Both offensive lines and defensive lines are deep enough to battle it out all game long with one or two key breakthrough plays making all the difference.

But in the end, Ohio State's offensive multiplicity, near all-time great rush efficiency, and depth of first round NFL Draft talent give them just enough of an edge to win the day. Thus ending any ignorant Ryan Day slander once and for all.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are USC, Missouri, Louisville, and Clemson.

• USC's schedule is their worst enemy this year. They look good enough to make the playoff even without Caleb Williams early on, but they still play Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame. There are way too many opportunities to screw this up with a still somewhat unproven quarterback and defense.
• On the other hand, Missouri's schedule is unrightfully going to keep them in the playoff discussion until they are obliterated by Alabama in late October. If they lose to Oklahoma or South Carolina immediately after that it's all over rather quickly for them.
• Jeff Brohm has Louisville cooking this year. All the meaningful metrics have them as a fringe playoff team right now thanks to Tyler Shough's surprising explosion, the reemergence of former five star wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks and a tough defensive front. However, their depth is questionable. They're walking a fine line all season long if Shough (injury prone) or anyone on their defensive front gets hurt.
• Clemson, despite getting dismantled by Georgia in Week 1, has a pretty clear path to the ACC Championship game. Cade Klubnik bounced back huge in their second game and the defense is still top tier. They could win out and make it in, or fall apart if their depth proves to be an issue when it shouldn't against ACC competition.

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!