The Tennessee Titans look to avoid an 0-4 start against the Miami Dolphins tonight, and on paper it's an extremely winnable matchup.
But we said that last week against the Malik Willis-led Packers, and Tennessee still found a way to get embarrassed.
Miami is trotting out QB Snoop Huntley on Monday Night Football , a player with a 3-6 starting record who joined the Dolphins less than 2 weeks ago. This Dolphins offense has been built specifically around Tua Tagovailoa's ability to process and get the ball out extremely quickly.
No offense in the league has a bigger delta between starter and backup efficiency: with Tua, they've been the #1 EPA/play offense in the league the past couple years. With a backup, they've been a bottom-three EPA/play offense. It hasn't worked without him. If the Dolphins want to pull out a win, they'll need a bespoke gameplan that's executed to a tee: something Mike Vrabel did in his first NFL coaching win, and many times throughout his tenure.
The Titans have no excuses. This is a game they are more than capable of winning, and winning comfortably at that. All they have to do is channel Mike Vrabel by abiding by his three most popular sayings. This is the kind of game you win 9 times out of 10 if you simply Play Like Mike™️ and remember his keys to success.
Play Better
You heard it a million times in the Vrabel Era: play better, coach better.
It was the blanket answer to many press conference questions, much to the annoyance of reporters and fans alike. Just got to play better and coach better!
But in this game in particular, the idea of "playing better" applies to turnovers above all else. This is the kind of game you can win handily if you simply protect the football. That is, of course, something the Titans have done a terrible job of so far. They're currently at the very bottom of the league in turnover differential, with 8 giveaways and 1 takeaway.
As for generating turnovers on defense, a lot of that is luck that will eventually regress. Just being in the right place at the right time. There have been many balls thrown and batted that were mere feet away from being easy Titans turnovers. That's just the way it goes sometimes.
But what the Titans can (and must!) control is how much they give the ball away. It's time for this offense to prioritize safety in this regard above basically everything else. Do everything in your power to keep the ball out of harms way. No stupid or reckless decisions. Live to fight another day, Will. The easiest way for the Dolphins to get a win with a backup in Week 4 is to be gifted the ball a couple of times. It's boring, but it's almost always true: turnovers win and lose football games.
Coach Better
While the Titans coaching hasn't been a big issue so far, there are three areas in which they need to show improvement.
Number one, they must do a better job scheming around the right tackle position. We've spent the past two years talking about how the Titans have no reliable tackles, and that in the NFL you can make do with one tackle, but not with zero.
Well, now they have one. Is it fair to lean so heavily on rookie LT JC Latham this early? No. But they don't have a choice, and this is what you draft guys in the top-10 for. You also have on of the best OL coaches in the league. I wrote last week about how they have to get creative and make it work.
Number two, emphasize the quick game. Will Levis' percentage of passes in less than 2.5s this season is 34.2%. That's worse than any Titans or Bengals QB since at least 2018. With the current state of their pass protection, they need to emphasize the quick passing game. And they have the right players for it to be extremely effective: Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Chig Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, DeAndre Hopkins. These are the archetypes you're looking for in a quick passing offense. Find them!
Finally, number three: do a better job of adjusting in-game. This is something I think fans need to have a healthy serving of patience with, because this takes reps. A brand new coaching staff isn't coming into their first game as elite adjusters on the fly. That's one of the things that separates the truly elite coaches from the average Joes in the NFL. But with each new opportunity, they need to show growth in this department. If something clearly isn't working in the first half, get away from it! Find an alternative, and quickly.
Dumb Stuff That Hurts The Team
The other thing we heard Vrabel preach a million times was to not "do dumb s--- that hurts the team".
Play clean ball. Don't do anything reckless. Don't get too heated and lose your head. Don't allow your emotions to dictate the flow of the game. Don't give your opponent free yards, points, or momentum because of your own stupid decision making.
In their past two games, we've seen the Titans do some "dumb s--- that hurts the team". The turnovers are one thing. The terrible cost-benefit analysis of the handful of boneheaded Levis turnovers falls squarely into this bucket. Against a Dolphins team who they should be able to dictate the pace and flow of the game, the Titans must make sound risk/reward decisions.
But then there are the penalties. The Titans have committed a massive and avoidable penalty in each of the past two games. It just so happens that both instances have been Jeffery Simmons infractions, and while Simmons is doubtful to play, anybody in two-tone blue is capable of making these kinds of mistakes.
In Week 2, Simmons came down on Aaron Rodgers in the pocket and drew an unnecessary roughness penalty, which bailed the Jets out on a 3rd & 15 that they didn't convert. Three plays later, they scored a touchdown and took the lead.
In Week 3, the Titans stopped the Packers on their first drive of the 2nd half. Kicker Brayden Narveson missed the 48 yard field goal attempt wide right, and the Titans were set to get the ball back with great field position. But Simmons was flagged for holding on the interior, and it gave Green Bay a free 1st down instead. Two plays later, they scored a touchdown and took a three-score lead.
This is another way you hand the Dolphins a win on Monday Night Football. You can play a clean turnover game and still give it away by doing other dumb stuff that hurts the team. In this game of all games, the Titans must keep their emotions in check, play clean, and be boring.
Related: Titans' patience to stick with Will Levis over Mason Rudolph could set the franchise up for a win-win scenario
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