12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions heading into Week 6 crowns a far too familiar champion
By Travis May,
7 hours ago
The 12-Team College Football Playoff is creeping up on us already as the regular season is nearly a halfway over for many teams. Many eams we once thought could make the field are dropping off every week. The true contenders to win it all keep shuffling around with each major conference victory. Which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?
In case you missed our prior installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series at A to Z Sports, here's a short synopsis on how this column is put together:
Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other variables we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.
And in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field (as you can see in Chris Vannini's post below, sharing details directly from College Football Playoff representation this spring).
Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:
The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
Quarterfinal and Semifinal game locations will be decided in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding.
With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 6 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.
First Round
Four Conference Champions on Bye
Alabama (13-0 SEC Champion)
Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
Miami (12-1 ACC Champion)
Iowa State (11-2 Big 12 Champion)
First Four Matchups
#12 Boise State (12-1 MWC Champion) at #5 Texas
#11 Notre Dame at #6 Georgia
#10 Clemson at #7 Oregon
#9 Tennessee at #8 Penn State
First Four Out
Missouri
Ole Miss
USC
LSU
Group of 5 Conference Contenders
UNLV
James Madison
Liberty
Navy
Army
12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions heading into Week 6
#12 Boise State at #5 Texas
Texas wins a surprisingly close matchup as Ashton Jeanty breaks Barry Sanders' all-time records.
Ashton Jeanty is having a season for the ages as he's on pace to destroy Barry Sanders' records that have stood for nearly four decades . He's averaging more than 10 yards per carry so far with more than 800 on the ground in just five games and isn't showing any signs of slowing down. He almost single-handedly beat the Oregon Ducks in Week 2, but his talents won't be enough against Texas.
It doesn't matter who Texas starts at quarterback. Both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning are Top 10 QBs in all of college football. The QB talent combined with future first round picks like Isaiah Bond at wide receiver, Anthony Hill Jr. at linebacker, and Kelvin Banks Jr. on the offensive line, the talent on the Longhorns wins the day in a closer-than-we-thought kind of matchup.
#11 Notre Dame at #6 Georgia
Georgia exposes Notre Dame as the fraudulent playoff team they are.
Notre Dame can take care of business against the bad teams (MAC teams notwithstanding), but when it comes to beating the biggest baddest monsters in the game they always fall short. It's not that Notre Dame is overrated. It's just that there's a clear drop off in team talent beyond the top six to seven teams this year, as is always the case. Riley Leonard just isn't a good enough passer to carry the rest of the roster against Georgia.
Georgia's only real competition comes down to a handful of teams in the nation. Notre Dame is not one of them. Carson Beck and the offense should do just enough while Georgia's elite defense headlined by Jalon Walker (and his 20% pass rush pressure rate), Mykel Williams (hopefully he's 100% by the playoff), and Malaki Starks shuts the Irish down.
Clemson's elite defensive line meets their match against Oregon.
Elite defensive lineman Peter Woods, edge defender T.J. Parker, and star linebacker Barrett Carter combine to make one of the most impressive trios of defensive players on any team. Woods has missed time lately, but when he returns to full speed the Tigers' defensive front six or seven will once again be a top ten unit. However, when facing Oregon's offensive line and quick-hit passing that advantage will be neutralized.
Oregon's interior offensive line play was a problem to start the season, but the future early round offensive tackle tandem of Ajani Cornelius and Josh Conerly Jr. have begun to carry the offense with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon is relying on a bit of an "all or nothing" approach with a bevy of quick underneath targets and a few strategic deep shots. That likely keeps the ball moving against Clemson's front enough to win a tight first round game.
Tennessee's offensive explosion proves too much for Penn State.
Drew Allar is much improved so far this season overall. He did struggle for much of the Illinois game, but Allar has looked much closer to the five star quarterback we once thought he was. The defense has been a Top 10 unit in the nation so far too. Unfortunately, when it comes to keeping up with truly explosive offenses Penn State doesn't look like they're quite there yet.
Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee are averaging the third most yards per game despite playing a tough Oklahoma defense already. Their explosive play rates rank inside the Top 25. Their yards per play marks are impressive as well. And on top of that, their offensive pace stresses even the best defenses. This is likely the best game of the first round, but Tennessee Vols get the edge thanks to their deadly combination of elite offense and efficient defense (first in yards per play allowed).
12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Quarterfinals Predictions
#1 Alabama vs #9 Tennessee
Alabama beats the Vols for the second time this year in a tight game.
Alabama is looking like the juggernaut they were in the prime of the Nick Saban era this season. They nearly let things slip against Georgia, but Jalen Milroe's Heisman Trophy kind of effort won the day last weekend. Alabama's combination of Top 10 offensive metrics with Top 15 defensive measures makes them the most balanced dominant team in the nation when adjusting for strength of schedule. Their depth of elite talent will likely overwhelm Tennessee in both the regular season and the playoff.
#2 Ohio State vs #7 Oregon
Ohio State wins the Big Ten midseason rematch even easier this time.
Ohio State vs. Oregon gives us yet another major conference rematch in round two of the playoff. The Buckeyes have the edge at every single skill position except for perhaps tight end. Their offensive and defensive lines at worst draw even. And their back seven on defense should absolutely shut down Oregon's vertical attempts while containing the underneath quick strikes thanks to elite players like safety Caleb Downs. The Buckeyes might win a close one in-season, but then use what they learned to dominate the Ducks in the playoffs.
Georgia stomps on Miami's hopeful attempt at a return to greatness.
Cameron Ward has been nothing short of magical thus far at quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes. There's a real argument for him as QB1 right now in all of college football. He has Miami averaging more yards per play than any other FBS team in the nation. And given Miami's remaining schedule there's a chance that continues all season long. However, that soft schedule won't do Ward any favors in preparing for a team like Georgia. The Bulldogs' top tier secondary surrendering barely 160 yards per game (including the game against Alabama) will contain Miami, allowing Trevor Etienne and Carson Beck to run away with the game early.
#4 Iowa State vs #5 Texas
Texas wins easily against their old Big 12 Conference nemesis.
Iowa State hasn't played many tough opponents so far, but they're only giving up 102 passing yards per game and they rank 12th in yards per play allowed. Their offense is a bit suspect, but so is every single other Big 12 team's. The conference is going to beat each other up all year long, leading to just one bid to the 12-Team College Football Playoff. Rocco Becht's quick decision-making (less than 2.5 seconds on average before he gets rid of the ball) and the surprisingly talented skill position set the Cyclones have will get them to the dance. With that said, Texas likely has them beat at quite literally every position on the field. This will be a slaughter.
Alabama defeats Texas in what ends up being the game of the year.
Alabama already has elite depth of high pedigree talents across the board, but they're in the middle of a season with a quartet of important players are emerging to superstar status. Jalen Milroe is averaging nearly five touchdowns per game by himself. Ryan Williams is putting up the best true freshman wide receiver season ever. Jihaad Campbell is playing better than perhaps any linebacker in the nation. And Malachi Moore is allowing just 7.5 yards per reception and a 30% completion rate in coverage. Texas has elite talents at several positions too, but the Crimson Tide looks like they're putting it all together under Kalen DeBoer and they move on to the championship.
Ohio State is one of three teams who can defeat Georgia and they pull off the close victory.
Ryan Day and Ohio State have been waiting for their shot to redeem themselves from the loss at midnight in the semifinals two years ago. They now have a roster potentially deeper than Georgia's. It's so deep in fact, that many believe the Buckeyes will break Georgia's record for most players selected in a single NFL Draft next spring. Georgia will handle business up to this point, but they've struggled against the tougher defensive fronts. Ohio State is allowing just 3.4 yards per play (second in the nation).
Championship
12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Championship Predictions
#1 Alabama vs #2 Ohio State
The only time Alabama Crimson Tide football has lost to Ohio State was back in January of 2015 in the very first College Football Playoff. These are very likely the best two rosters in the nation. Both have been recruiting at Top 3 levels for over a decade. And both teams have elite depth at most critical positions.
As of today, this game is essentially a draw on paper, but Alabama's performance against their strength of schedule to date gives them just a slight edge. It would be glorious to see this epic matchup of two great brands go to multiple overtimes in the championship. Jalen Milroe's dual threat mobility likely proves to be a useful edge when the game is on the line and the Crimson Tide wins it all. That shouldn't be surprising since Kalen DeBoer just took Washington to the championship game a year ago.
In this scenario the "first four out" are Missouri, Ole Miss, USC, and LSU.
Missouri - They might have struggled with Vanderbilt two weeks ago, but their schedule is completely manageable down the stretch, and they have a Top 15 NFL Draft pick at wide receiver in Luther Burden.
Ole Miss - The loss to Kentucky isn't great, but the Wildcats have a Top 10 defensive front in FBS football. QB Jaxson Dart and potential Biletnikoff WR Tre Harris could certainly keep this team in the playoff hunt all year long.
USC - The loss to Michigan was rough, but if it weren't for a pick six by Will Johnson and an absurd run from Kalel Mullings late then Miller Moss and the Trojans would still be undefeated.
LSU - Garrett Nussmeier continues to garner massive hype as he's slicing up defenses this year with his impressive wide receivers. Outside of the Week 1 slip-up against USC the LSU Tigers have been on the right trajectory.
There are five key Group of 5 Conference contenders outside of Boise State:
UNLV - Their new quarterback looks like he's not going to have any problem putting up points all year long. They could certainly push to finish undefeated.
James Madison - JMU might have a defense problem, but they also have the best Group of 5 QB in the nation in Alonza Barnett.
Liberty - The going has been tougher than expected in a few games, but Kaidon Salter and Liberty still look like they're on pace to finish undefeated.
Navy - It's odd for an armed forces academy to be anywhere near playoff contention, but they can dominate on offense in a variety of ways (for once) and have a path to a one-loss or undefeated season.
Army - They're a significant step down analytically when compared to Navy, but as long as they keep winning they're in it.
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