NASHVILLE -- Tennessee Titans legend and current Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry is currently sitting atop the active NFL leaders with 9,982 career rushing yards.
That leaves Henry just 18 yards shy of becoming the 32nd player in NFL history to break the 10,000-yard threshold. A mark he'll almost certainly achieve this weekend when the Ravens take on the Bengals in Cincinnati.
With Henry on the cusp of history, it begs the question I have been asking ever since 10k became a legitimate possibility a few years back. Is Derrick Henry going to be the NFL's last 10,000-yard rusher?
2024 has seen a shift in NFL offenses prioritizing the run game more than in recent memory. But it's still a quarterback's league that values passing offense and schemes more than a bell-cow running back. With the way running backs are being treated and paid, it's becoming increasingly difficult for backs to have a sustained career of production and carries.
Other NFL running backs chasing 10,000 yards
None of the current Top 10 active rushing leaders are younger than 28 years old, and many of them still have thousands of yards to go. Directly behind Henry on the leaderboard is Ezekiel Elliott (8,985) getting ready to eclipse 9k...but I don't see 1,000 more rushing yards in Zeke's future at the rate he's going in Dallas.
A torn ACL really hurt Nick Chubb's (6,511) chances of getting there and the lingering injury issues for Christian McCaffrey (6,185) continue to be detrimental to his career longevity.
I also don't see another 4,000 rushing yards coming for players like Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, or Alvin Kamara.
You could make a case for any of Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, or even Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, but they all need close to 5,000 more yards still. Any injury could quickly derail their trajectory and you never know when a running back is going to fall off a cliff. I would be surprised if Jacobs and Barkley were still starting running backs in 2028.
The league has started to view running backs as interchangeable pieces. The new meta is to always have two running backs who split touches in a versatile offense. Four of the top six rushing offenses in 2023 (CHI, BAL, MIA, DET) had a backfield that was shared by two or more running backs.
The Ravens and Bears were the best running teams in football. Neither had a 1,000-yard rusher, but both had three different running backs with over 300 rushing yards and a mobile quarterback on the team.
Supporting facts: Derrick Henry, the last 10,000 yard NFL running back
- Not a single running back had 300 attempts in 2023 and only one running back had 1,200 rushing yards (Henry).
- If we assume that 243 carries and 1,091 yards in a season is the average pace for 1,000-yard rusher in today's NFL, eight seasons of that production is still only good for 1,944 carries and 8,728 rushing yards...well short.
- In the last decade, no running back has had 1,200 rushing yards in a season more than three times. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, and Le'Veon Bell have all done it three times.
Running backs like Derrick Henry are just not as prevalent as they used to be. Finding a back that is able to consistently take 300+ carries, avoid major injury, and maintain their speed and agility for 8-10 years is nearly impossible. Henry is part of a dying breed, which is why he is such a legend.
NFL franchises today prefer the running back by committee approach, and their recent financial investments mirror that interest. Fair or not, teams don't want to pay running backs beyond the life of a 4-5 year rookie contract. How is a player going to have 8-10 great seasons and reach 10k when even the best of the best can struggle to get a second contract?
Five of the six leading rushers from the 2022 season are on different teams in 2024. The other one is Nick Chubb, who has not played a snap this season.
Go back six years to the 2018 NFL Draft. 21 running backs were drafted. Only five of them are still in football. Only two of them are still starters (Chubb, Barkley). Only one of them is still with the team that drafted them (Chubb).
This is the reality of today's NFL. And someday, we will have to reexamine our benchmark statistics for Hall of Fame running backs. When you watch Derrick Henry hit 10,000 yards on Sunday, take it in...we may never see it happen again.
Related: Titans legend Derrick Henry denied NFL immortality by head coach John Harbaugh
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