NFL Draft QB prospect loses millions after returning to school and suffering season-ending injury

The Florida Gators received tough news on Monday as starting quarterback Graham Mertz was ruled out for the rest of the 2024 season. As the Gators transition to freshman D.J. Lagway , Mertz's future becomes uncertain. Although his intentions were good to return to help Florida get back on its feet this season, his 2025 NFL Draft stock has taken a huge hit.

Mertz, who had mid-round grades for the 2024 NFL Draft from some evaluators, had clearly improved throughout the course of last season. He cut down his turnover-worthy throws by more than half, improved his accuracy by taking reasonable check-downs, was a more effective scrambler, and dealt with pressure better.

His 2024 season was not quite as fruitful, though. His turnover-worthy throws are up while his time to throw has swelled. His big-time throws are at a career-low. He's been fine, but Mertz hasn't been a star.

Had he been selected at the end of the third round in the 2024 class, Mertz would have made at least $5.59 million over four seasons with his NFL team. But that number drops to just over $4 million as a sixth or seventh-rounder. Mertz lost millions by coming back to Florida.

Even as On3 has valued Mertz's NIL deals at $821,000, there's a ton of money that's been left on the table. The 6-foot-2, 225-pounder has raised his stock significantly since he left Wisconsin after 2022, but the time to jump to the NFL was last year.

Barring an injury waiver, Mertz is out of collegiate eligibility because he played in five games this season.

That's a tough break for the player with the nation's leading completion rate. Mertz has fans across the NFL, notably liking his throwing motion, developmental curve, and raw arm talent. He's not a rushing threat, though, and a significant knee injury could slow his transition to the next level.

I have Mertz as a draftable talent still, and the NFL always needs backups. But his decision to go back to Florida undoubtedly backfired despite his best intentions. He'll be 24 by the time this year ends, making him a late-round selection at-best.