The deeper we get into the college football season, the more we are going to hyper focus on the playoffs, and project it in this chaotic landscape. In a recent projection from A to Z Sports , the Notre Dame Fighting Irish earned a spot in the field. They came in with the No. 10 seed and were set to travel to take on the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round.
If this matchup did come to fruition, it would be a very interesting one. In one corner, we have a Penn State team under James Franklin who has consistently underperformed on the biggest stages despite having a lot of talent to work with. In the other, we have Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish who are still a huge unknown on that type of stage.
Here is how A to Z Sports projects that matchup to go.
#10 Notre Dame at #7 Penn State
James Franklin wins the battle against fellow unproven playoff head coach Marcus Freeman.
Penn State's pass rush is one of the most elite in all of college football. Their time from snap to pressure is among the best in the nation. The run defense is stout. Drew Allar is putting up a top ten quarterback season via most efficiency metrics like adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating. That should be enough to hold a firm edge at home against a more one dimensional Notre Dame team.
Notre Dame has been destroying teams on the ground, but Riley Leonard's passing work has been "problematic" at best. If anything keeps this matchup against Penn State close it will be the emerging defensive front success of the Irish , as they continue to get after the passer and force errors from opposing offenses.
On paper, this is a pretty split matchup. You could convince me that either side won, and I wouldn’t be overly shocked. Penn State has a very talented team, as does Notre Dame. The difference could be depth with the Irish dealing with a long list of injuries right now.
Even with that in mind, it’s hard to have confidence in Coach Franklin on this type of stage. Since becoming the head coach with the program in 2014, they have had an awful track record in big games. If this matchup did happen, it would be an opportunity to play a top ten team at home.
During Franklin’s tenure, he has gone 3-18 in games against top ten schools. Surely that has to be better with home field advantage, right? It’s actually the same winning percentage, going just 1-6 in those contests.
Despite a much smaller sample size, Coach Freeman is actually 2-3 against top ten teams during his tenure so far. Having one less victory compared to Franklin despite playing 16 less games is a jarring result. It would be a fascinating battle.
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