"Helene to be" will be a significant threat to Florida (Fact). We've been talking about this for well over a week. There are no surprises here. The spaghetti models you see are "best guess" at this point given there is still not a well-defined center. (Even still it is rare to see such an agreement this early) Bottom line, chances are extremely high Florida will see a hurricane on Thursday. Impacts on the Bay Area will start as early as Wednesday night) Based on the current track, the worst wind will again be "Big Bend" to the panhandle, however, some models are closer to us. I have no doubt we will be a PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) advisory later today that will give an actual NHC track. I also think we will be in a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch as early as Tuesday morning.
2. Surge. Some surge models are showing a significant surge along our coastline on Thursday night. (Fact) These models are very much dependent on track, so if the track gets closer, the surge will be higher. Remember, surge can impact our area even when a storm is well over 150 miles away. It's a bit too early to give exact numbers, but slosh models for Thursday night are showing a surge even higher than some have seen in the past couple of years. You will probably see surge numbers floating around the internet. Remember, these numbers from the NHC are "reasonable worst-case scenario" forecasts. They want to give you the worst case so you can prepare in case it plays out that way. If you live in flood-prone areas, DO NOT take this storm lightly. It may very well stay well offshore, but water can (and likely will) build up along the coast.
3. The worst of the wind will be within about 15 miles of the center. So, as is usually the case, areas of extreme wind impact are quite small. For this, the exact track is obviously a huge factor. At this point, that track seems like one we have seen often lately. Idailia being the strongest last year. So to be clear, if these spaghetti models are correct, the Bay Area will likely NOT see sustained hurricane force winds, but could see gusts along the coast that high.
4, I have little doubt there will be a lot of closings and cancellations starting on Wednesday..but mostly on Thursday and Friday. Keep it right here for the latest.
5. Intensity. It is very likely this will become a hurricane. (Fact) It will be a major hurricane. (NOT factual, but certainly possible) I suspect the NHC forecast at least a Cat 2 upon landfall, and possibly even higher. We don't deal in worst-case scenarios around here, but yes, in this case, where landfall occurs, it's a real possibility. So, from the panhandle to the "Big Bend", don't let your guard down on this one. And even the Bay Area could see hurricane-force gusts. If I were to compare it to a storm of late for impacts on our area, winds from Irma were 65 to 75 with higher gusts. IF the models are right, that's about what we would see along the coast. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LESS. This storm will NOT cut across the state so areas East of I-75 will see lower impacts from wind.
6. Again, if you have kids at Florida State University and FAMU, keep a very close eye on this one. I expect a track to come out later today. If this track is within 20 miles of Tally, you can decide whether you want your kids to ride out the storm. Some folks suggest it might be more dangerous driving home than riding it out. That might very well be true for some kids. Dorms are usually built really well...sometimes apartments, not so much. That is a personal decision for you and your family to make. But again, IF that track is forecast close to Tally when it comes out later today, take it seriously.
7. You may note my "tone" seems a bit different with this one. You're right. While the current data suggests the worst of this storm is North and West of the Bay Area, a subtle change to the East could bring stronger impacts to our area. That is NOT the forecast, but it's something that can't be completely ruled out. In my opinion, an NHC track will probably show a track from just West of Tally into the Big Bend. That, as is often the case, brings the worst of this into the panhandle. So, make the preps you need to ride out another one. I'll be posting my list of preps our family uses shortly. It can be pretty helpful. To put it simply, prepare for the worst, hope for the best. You can never be overprepared in this type of situation.
8. If you live in the panhandle, the Big Bend, or even the Bay Area, now is NOT the time to freak out. It's the time to make decisions and plans you need to keep your family safe. Rule #7.
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