Wild card bye? Astros now 6 games back of favorable postseason seed with 42 games left

The Houston Astros may need to savor this Thursday off day after a triumphant 8-1 road trip. The next time they can take a break from baseball will be the day after Labor Day.

Don't forget to refrain from wearing white, by the way.

The 65-55 defending American League West champions are three games ahead of the second-place Seattle Mariners, who the Detroit Tigers swept.

After an abysmal start to the 2024 season, the Astros are in a spot they were no closer to achieving on June 18, when they lost to the lowly Chicago White Sox and dropped to 10 games behind the Mariners.

Since then, Houston has enjoyed a 13-game swing thanks to the Astros' 31-15 record and Seattle's 19-27 record since that White Sox loss.

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It would take 1,000 more words to relitigate that stretch. In short, Houston's pitching staff has weathered injuries to Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and others, with Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco turning in impressive long outings as starters. Framber Valdez nearly earned a second no-hitter , and trade-deadline arm Yusei Kikuchi has impressed during his handful of starts. And offensively, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and catcher Yainer Diaz have been consistent after stats leader Kyle Tucker headed to the injured list since a foul play bounced off his shin on June 3.

Forty-two games stand between the Astros and the end of the season. Whether that includes a division title, a wild-card berth, or a lost ticket to the playoffs remains to be seen.

The road gets tougher from here, though. Houston meets those same White Sox beginning Friday at Minute Maid Park to kick off 18 consecutive games without an off day. Chicago, holding a 25-93 record, will re-enter the picture after defeating the New York Yankees this week in a 12-2 romp. No opponent, no matter how bad, is to be taken lightly.

The rest of the 18-game stretch includes the Boston Red Sox at home, four games in Baltimore, a three-game series at Philadelphia, a four-gamer at MMP against the Kansas City Royals, and the opening contest of a three-game road series vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

Yes, the Astros face the Reds in the 18th game, take a day off, then resume the series in the following two days. Major League Baseball can be strange, sometimes. Like Grimace first-pitch strange .

Anyways, the Orioles, Phillies, and Royals are in playoff contention and present hurdles to the Astros maintaining their position.

As for probability and odds, ESPN Bet prices Houston as a -400 favorite to win the division, 5.5 to 1 odds to win the AL pennant, and 12 to 1 to win the World Series behind the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Orioles.

FanGraphs shows Houston with a 78.7% likelihood of winning the division and a 13.2% probability of clinching either the AL's first or second seed. Overall, the Astros have better than an 84% chance of making the postseason.

For what it's worth, Houston is six games back from the second-seed Yankees and 6.5 games behind Cleveland for the first seed in the league.

Get ready for a mad dash to the finish line, 'Stros fans.

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