Severe thunderstorm risk to ramp up across the Central states

Dangerous complexes of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected from the northern Plains through the Midwest next week

In the wake of a July lull of severe weather across the Midwest and northern Plains, the pattern could turn volatile heading into the final days of the month.

AccuWeather meteorologists have highlighted a zone across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest that is expected to feature feisty thunderstorm activity.

The heat dome that has baked the western United States for most of the summer will undergo a shift and realignment early this week, bringing scorching temperatures into the southern and central Plains. This shift in the core of the heat dome will then play a major role in fueling rounds of severe thunderstorms over a multi-day stretch.

“The weather pattern this week is expected to feature similar characteristics to what was observed back on July 15 across the Midwest, which ultimately ended up producing a powerful derecho across Iowa and northern Illinois,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty stated.

The series of potential storm complexes is expected to kick off across the Midwest into Monday night, threatening areas from Bismarck, North Dakota, to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, as well as a separate zone impacting locations from near St. Louis to perhaps Bristol, Tennessee. In addition to the risk of damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours within the thunderstorms can also bring a risk for flash flooding.

A constant influx of hot and humid conditions across the Plains will feed thunderstorm activity in the Midwest, allowing the atmosphere to quickly “reload” in areas that see thunderstorm activity early in the week, keeping the risk for additional thunderstorms in the days to follow.

Heading into the day on Tuesday, conditions will be monitored closely to see if thunderstorm activity from Monday night survives across the Midwest as it dives to the south and southeast. Whether the thunderstorms are severe or not, drenching rainfall can be expected across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys.

The next complex of thunderstorms embedded within the storm train will likely be hot on the heels of its predecessor, firing up across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

AccuWeather meteorologists have already highlighted a heightened risk in anticipation of Tuesday’s thunderstorm activity, with the concern that thunderstorms could produce wind gusts approaching the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 95 miles per hour.

Spanning a swath from the Dakotas into Indiana and Kentucky, residents should be prepared for intense thunderstorm activity. These powerful thunderstorms have the potential to roll right through the nighttime hours, posing additional risks and a heightened need for residents to have a way to receive crucial and potentially life-saving warnings if they are issued.

The caboose of the storm train across the central United States is expected to pass through the same areas once again between Wednesday and Thursday, again bringing a risk for powerful complexes of thunderstorms. Flash flooding and even renewed river flooding concerns can increase by midweek, especially in areas with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity.

Isolated spin-ups will be possible as storms pulse across the Midwest Wednesday to Thursday night. Forecasters have highlighted a zone from the South Dakota-Minnesota border to the northwest corner of Illinois as a "moderate" risk area for severe thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday.

Storms will shift farther east through the Ohio Valley from Thursday to Thursday night, projected to impact cities from Indianapolis to Louisville, Kentucky, and Pittsburgh.

While the active pattern for severe thunderstorms may ease for a time late this week, the risk of dangerous thunderstorm complexes may not be off the table heading into the first half of August.

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