More rain, tropical impacts to target southeastern US

Additional flooding and dangerous conditions at the beach are in the cards for parts of the Southeast throughout the week in the wake of Debby.

A late-summer change in the weather pattern across the southeastern United States has replaced worsening drought with flooding rains and tropical impacts in recent weeks.

Back in mid-July, all of North Carolina and South Carolina were abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In fact, over 20 percent of North Carolina and 35 percent of South Carolina were in severe or extreme drought at the time.

With the help of tropical moisture, especially Debby, the pattern has completely flipped. More than 6 inches of rain have fallen across much of North and South Carolina through the first third of August. The most extreme locations have had over a foot of rain, likely wiping out any of the lingering drought in early August.

Much of the Southeast's rainfall totals so far in August have come from Debby, given the storm's landfall as a hurricane in Florida, followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina three days later.

In the wake of Debby, more rain has fallen across parts of the region, particularly across the Carolinas. A stalled front in North and South Carolina has been responsible for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms since the weekend.

Wilmington, North Carolina, reported 0.75 of an inch of rain on Sunday, following the 10.5 inches of rain that fell last week. Just to the north, Fayetteville, North Carolina, received 1.14 inches on Sunday.

While not everywhere will see a thunderstorm through Tuesday, those locations that get any rain will continue to be slowed in the clean-up efforts given the already drenched soil. As the middle of the week approaches, an area of high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley, acting like a shield from any significant wet weather for those along the Southeast coast.

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Despite the drier weather on the way by the end of the week, the same locations impacted by Debby's moisture could still have impacts from the next tropical feature in the Atlantic, Ernesto.

"Based on the current pattern across the eastern U.S. and the Atlantic, Ernesto is not expected to have direct impacts on the southeastern United States," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

One reason is the projection of the winds high up in the atmosphere, often referred to by meteorologists as steering winds. These winds combined with a dominant high pressure in the southern United States are likely to protect the Southeast from the tropical storm, which is forecast to become a hurricane later this week.

"Even with the track of Ernesto well out to sea, residents of the Southeast should not let their guard down, especially those who plan to go to the beaches this week," DaSilva explained.

The tropical storm is expected to strengthen north of the Caribbean islands, increasing how far the higher waves can travel. In addition to the islands of the Bahamas, much of Florida's Atlantic coast up through the Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect dangerous waves later in the week.

While a change in the pattern could bring drier conditions to the Southeast coast by Thursday, strong rip currents and rough surf could still impact those heading to the beaches into Saturday, thanks to a strengthening Ernesto north of the Caribbean Islands.

"Beachgoers should follow precautions set forth by local governments and remember to enter the water in locations where a lifeguard is present," DaSilva warned.

The threat of rough surf and strong rip currents is expected to expand up the Eastern Seaboard through the weekend and depends on the exact track of Ernesto.

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