Tropical Storm Ernesto barrels towards Caribbean Islands, could become the Atlantic's next hurricane

The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season has taken shape and is forecast to strengthen this week.

On the heels of Hurricane Debby, AccuWeather hurricane experts are tracking the latest tropical system, Tropical Storm Ernesto, across the central Atlantic Ocean, as it sweeps through the Caribbean bringing heavy rain, strong winds and rough surf into midweek.

Late Saturday, Aug. 10, AccuWeather initiated a forecast track map for a tropical rainstorm, highlighting the risk for impactful weather across the Caribbean and Bermuda. The tropical rainstorm strengthened and became a tropical storm (sustained winds of 39-73 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) at Monday 5 p.m. EDT, claiming the next name on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season storm lineup, which is Ernesto.

Tracking into anomalously warm waters

By the middle of this week, forecasters warn that this feature could ramp up to at least a Category 1 hurricane as it travels across the warm waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Sea-surface temperatures across this zone in the Atlantic are well above the minimum threshold required for tropical development (>26ºC, or 78.8ºF), currently reading between 28-30ºC (82.4-86ºF).

"Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic basin as a whole remain near-record levels, only trailing 2023 values," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist and Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

Ocean Heat Content, a measure of how much energy and warmth is absorbed by the sun and takes into account the depth of how far that warm water extends vertically, is also at near-record levels in the Main Development Region. Not only are water levels anomalously warm at the surface, the elevated ocean temperatures extend hundreds of feet down below the ocean's surface.

"Factors such as near-record ocean heat content levels can help to significantly contribute to the rapid intensification of hurricanes. Both Hurricane Beryl this year and Hurricane Ian in 2022 took advantage of very high sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content, which allowed these storms to rapidly intensify as a result," added DaSilva.

AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that areas of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will all be impacted by Ernesto in the coming days as the storm takes a general west-northwesterly track through midweek. Wind shear is forecast to be pretty light as the storm moves through the northeastern Caribbean Islands, which will likely allow Ernesto to maintain tropical storm strength.

After moving through the islands, the storm will likely be drawn to the north by an amplified southward dip in the jet stream, pulling it away from the Bahamas and the United States. Even though these areas are likely to avoid direct impacts from Ernesto, a strengthening storm will allow strong waves to reach the beaches, leading to dangerous seas and rip currents for the Southeast.

At this time, Ernesto is expected to veer northward and then slightly northeast by late week, potentially ramping up to a major hurricane (characterized as Category 3 or higher) for a time before setting its sites on Bermuda by the upcoming weekend.

Meteorologist Emma Belscher noted that while the storm is expected to journey towards Bermuda, if its takes a bit more of a southern track initially, it could be pushed closer the East Coast.

Intense rainfall and boisterous winds to impact the islands

As Ernesto advances westward and scrapes the Leeward Islands early this week, it will produce rounds of rain across the region. The outer rainbands of the storm reached the Lesser Antilles midday Monday, and will overspread the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Tuesday.

Heavy rain from this feature will pose the risk for flash flooding and mudslides across the islands, especially across the mountainous terrain. In general, tropical rainfall totals will range up to 4-8 inches across Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis and Anguilla to the Vigin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Rainfall amounts to this degree, or even locally higher, can lead to flooding, washouts, dangerous travel and mudslides across the eastern and northern Caribbean Islands.

Gusty winds are projected to ramp up early this week as Ernesto barrels across the northeastern Caribbean Islands. Gusts can exceed 80 mph from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico as the center of the storm passes through the region. Winds can even surpass 100 mph, primarily over water, if the storm strengthens and veers northward later in the week.

Due to impacts of rain and wind from Ernesto, the AccuWeather RealImpact™Scale for Hurricanes across the northeastern Caribbean is a 1.

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

AccuWeather meteorologists insist that a super-charged Atlantic hurricane season will unfold this year, with a large number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Some storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification due largely to the ongoing higher-than-historical average water temperatures.

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