Ernesto to become a major hurricane, threaten Bermuda, Canada

Ernesto may track close enough to Bermuda for the eye to brush the islands this weekend prior to a landfall in Atlantic Canada early next week.

Despite encountering Puerto Rico's towering mountains Tuesday night, Ernesto continued to slowly gain strength from Wednesday to Thursday and has the potential to rapidly intensify while over open waters of the Atlantic. The next encounters for the powerful hurricane will be Bermuda this weekend, then Atlantic Canada early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

The central pressure of the storm continued to drop Thursday morning, which was a sign the storm was strengthening. Winds typically increase during and shortly after a drop in pressure.

At 8 a.m. EDT, Thursday, Ernesto was a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale with 85 mph maximum sustained winds while tracking northward at 13 mph. The hurricane was just over 600 miles to the south-southwest of Bermuda.

"Further strengthening of Ernesto is anticipated, with rapid intensification possible over the next couple of days as the system encounters warm waters, moist air and low wind shear," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, "And as a result, we believe Ernesto will become a major hurricane of at least Category 3 strength by Friday prior to approaching Bermuda."

Ernesto to pass close to Bermuda

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Bermuda is a 3. The RealImpact scale incorporates rain, storm surge and economic loss, in addition to wind impacts, rather than just the Saffir-Simpson scale, which only measures the wind intensity of a hurricane.

Rapid intensification occurs when maximum sustained winds within the storm increase by 35 mph or greater within 24 hours.

"Ernesto could pass within 100 miles of Bermuda on Saturday morning," DaSilva said.

Depending on exactly how close the storm tracks to the islands, the strongest part of the hurricane — the eastern eye wall — could pass over the British Overseas Territory. While many of the structures on the island are made of stone and can withstand a formidable hurricane, power outages will occur, with the potential for significant property damage.

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Cruise, shipping and fishing interests should closely monitor the track and intensity of Ernesto as it turns northward over the west-central Atlantic. As Ernesto approaches this weekend, it is strongly recommended that small craft remain secured in port. As Ernesto makes its closest pass to Bermuda, airport operations may cease.

Ernesto will bring heavy rainfall to the islands of Bermuda. The rain will be intense enough to cause urban flooding and wash rocks and other debris onto roads that pass through the small hills.

Since rainwater is captured and used for drinking and other purposes on the islands, non-flooding rainfall is generally welcomed. From 4-8 inches of rain is forecast to fall in Bermuda, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 10 inches. Rainfall will be given a boost by the proximity of a non-tropical storm system nearby prior to Ernesto's arrival.

Ernesto to make landfall in Atlantic Canada

After Ernesto's encounter with Bermuda this weekend, the next stop for the hurricane will be Atlantic Canada. Even though the region is hit frequently in the winter months by powerful nor'easters, Ernesto could bring significant problems to the region.

"Ernesto could strike the island of Newfoundland or possibly even reach Nova Scotia, Canada, early next week," DaSilva said.

A dip in the jet stream will be sharp enough to pull Ernesto on a more westerly path for a time, and that could be enough to cause landfall in Atlantic Canada.

"At this time, we believe Ernesto will be taking a north-northeast path as it approaches Atlantic Canada early next week, and that brings up the possibility of a landfall in Newfoundland," DaSilva said.

Because of the highly variable shape of the coastline in Atlantic Canada and the increasing forward speed of Ernest early next week, pinpointing the exact landfall time and location poses a challenge. At this time, landfall could occur as early as late Sunday night to late Monday in Atlantic Canada.

While waters trend progressively cooler north of Bermuda, they are warm enough to sustain a quick-moving hurricane such as Ernesto. Landfall as a hurricane with wind gusts of 60-90 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 100 mph is likely.

AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Ernesto and the jet stream dip will remain separate entities. Because of this, rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 8 inches near and north of where the center rolls ashore. Rainfall of this intensity would lead to flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts.

However, should Ernesto and the jet stream merge over Atlantic Canada, rainfall could increase exponentially, and a widespread major flooding event might unfold with significant risk to lives and property.

Even though Ernesto poses no direct threat to the United States mainland at this time, it will bring building seas and rough surf with increasing rip currents along the Atlantic beaches this week and weekend.

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

AccuWeather meteorologists say that a super-charged Atlantic hurricane season will unfold this year with a large number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Some storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification due largely to the ongoing higher-than-historical average water temperatures.

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