Ernesto to swipe at Newfoundland before speeding toward UK

After raising seas, winds and rain near Newfoundland on Monday, Ernesto, as a tropical wind and rainstorm, is forecast to impact the British Isles from Wednesday night to Thursday.

Ernesto will make a close approach to southeastern Newfoundland later Monday as a hurricane or strong tropical storm before speeding across the North Atlantic and toward the British Isles as a tropical wind and rainstorm from later Wednesday to Thursday, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.

Cooler waters in the North Atlantic will cause Ernesto to lose some wind intensity and undergo a transformation in the coming days. However, even though some of Ernesto's structure will change, it will still be a formidable storm that will raise winds and seas well away from its center and produce heavy rain along its ongoing track.

Ernesto spent time as a tropical storm following landfall on Bermuda early Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto regained hurricane status on Sunday afternoon.

"Ernesto will likely pass within 100 miles of the Avalon Peninsula of the island of Newfoundland that makes up the Canada province of Newfoundland and Labrador Monday evening or during the overnight hours on Monday," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

As of early Monday morning, Ernesto was under 600 miles to the south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland with 85 mph maximum sustained winds.

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Some variation in the track is possible, which could bring Ernesto closer to or a bit farther away from Newfoundland.

Ernesto is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Atlantic Canada.

The RealImpact™ scale takes into account much more than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale does. In addition to winds, the RealImpact™ scale factors in the overall risks to lives and property due to storm surge flooding, flooding from heavy rainfall and travel disruptions as well as the anticipated economic loss.

Offshore seas of up to 30-40 feet will occur near the core of Ernesto. Rain and wind directly associated with the storm will spread quickly over the southeastern and central parts of Newfoundland on Monday.

Wind gusts of 40-60 mph (tropical storm force) will be common over the southeastern corner of Newfoundland, including the major city of St. John's, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 100 mph, most likely to occur on Cape Race.

Even though the region is hit by powerful storms including nor'easters during the fall, winter and spring, Ernesto can still cause damage by knocking down trees and power lines. Flash flooding and coastal flooding from overwash are concerns as well.

A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall on southeastern Newfoundland with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 8 inches.

Beyond Newfoundland waters, Ernesto to approach the UK

As Ernesto moves along, it will be of concern for ships at sea over the North Atlantic from Tuesday to Wednesday. The storm will accelerate and may reach forward speeds of 30-40 mph. Seas ahead of the storm will quickly build to 20-30 feet.

Ernesto will continue as a tropical wind and rainstorm beyond Newfoundland in the waters of the North Atlantic. The storm will quickly approach the British Isles on Wednesday.

The exact track, size and intensity of Ernesto will determine the magnitude of the problems associated with its wind and rain from later Wednesday to Thursday. At this time, it appears the worst of the storm will occur to the north and west of London, but that may change depending on Ernesto's track. Dublin and Glasgow are more likely to experience significant wind and rain from the storm.

As tropical storms and hurricanes transition to wind and rainstorms, they can still pack a wallop with flooding rain and damaging winds for many days. In some cases, they can even produce tornadoes. This is why AccuWeather meteorologists continue to track such storms long after the National Hurricane Center ends their advisories.

Depending on how much of the wind and rainstorm survives the trek across the United Kingdom, stormy conditions may move on to affect part of northwestern Europe late this week.

Are there other features in the Tropics being monitored?

The Pacific is heating up with multiple systems being monitored in addition to Gilma. One system may pass close to Hawaii this weekend.

There is a remote chance that a non-tropical storm over land in the southeastern U.S. early this week will gradually organize while moving over the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Steering breezes would take this feature into Texas by the weekend. Dry air and dust may limit tropical activity over the balance of the Atlantic basin this week.

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