Florida thunderstorms could be prelude to next tropical risk in Gulf of Mexico

Torrential downpours from powerful thunderstorms will frequent parts of Florida into this weekend as a storm drifts over the Gulf of Mexico with a low chance of tropical development.

Portions of Florida will have more thunderstorms than usual into the weekend, threatening outdoor plans and travel before an anticipated uptick in tropical activity, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

August is a busy month for thunderstorms in Florida, with downpours typically dumping 6-10 inches of rain on the central and southern parts of the peninsula throughout the month. The setup over the next few days may not only raise the number of thunderstorms but also enhance their intensity.

A combination of an approaching storm, an uptick in moisture and summertime heat will bring locally drenching thunderstorms to Florida and enhance the situation enough to trigger flash flooding and strong wind gusts.

"Light steering winds over Florida will mean that thunderstorms will be slow-moving and unload a tremendous amount of rain," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, "Rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour can occur, which is enough to trigger flash urban flooding and possibly block some roads with high water."

There may be a couple of waterspouts with strong storms that form near the coast.

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There will be little change with the pattern into Saturday, but slowly, the bulk of the thunderstorm activity may settle southward over the Peninsula.

Portions of the Florida Peninsula were in significant drought early in the summer, but rain from Debby virtually wiped out the dry conditions. A few pockets remain where unwatered lawns are brown.

Watching the Gulf of Mexico for 2 possible rounds

The storm promoting thunderstorms in Florida is forecast to move southward over the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week then wander westward across the Gulf through the weekend.

As this storm wanders over the Gulf, it will gather moisture and organize. Depending on how much time the storm spends over the warm water, it could evolve into a tropical depression or storm before pushing onshore in Texas next week.

"At the very least, this feature will bring an uptick in clouds, showers and thunderstorms as it arrives in Texas and pushes inland across the Lone Star State. Any non-severe storms or non-flooding rainfall would probably be a welcomed relief from the extreme heat and significant drought conditions that have been building up this summer," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

Next week, another tropical concern may swing across the Gulf of Mexico with the potential to evolve over the warm water.

"That second feature would travel from the Bahamas and South Florida this weekend to the central Gulf coast on Wednesday or Thursday of next week," Buckingham said.

Like the Texas storm, there is the chance of last-minute tropical development over the warm waters, bringing clouds, showers and thunderstorms to the Mississippi Delta region.

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