Several tropical threats lurk in Atlantic amid historic lull

Despite the lengthy and historical lull in tropical activity over the Atlantic basin that lasted through Labor Day, there are multiple features AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring now and in the days ahead.

Following Ernesto from mid-August, opportunities for tropical storms to form have been scarce, but there are several areas that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring for tropical development into mid-September. At least one will have an impact on the United States and another on Atlantic Canada and both could become named systems in the short term.

AccuWeather hurricane experts have been closely watching a slow-moving storm that meandered from the Gulf of Mexico to Texas over the Labor Day weekend. Forecasters dubbed the system a tropical rainstorm to raise public awareness of its flooding potential for portions of the Lone Star State. The storm triggered incidents of flash flooding from the central Texas coast to the middle of the state.

That same tropical rainstorm has reorganized along the Texas coast since Tuesday. It will remain relatively stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing torrential rain and locally severe thunderstorms to portions of the Southeast. A separate area of low pressure can develop off of the Carolina coast and bring heavy downpours, gusty winds and rough surf to southeastern Georgia, North and South Carolina Saturday.

"There are concerns that it [the Texas system] could have enough time to evolve into a tropical depression or named tropical storm before pushing onshore along the central Gulf coast late in the week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

"The time spent over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters will be limited and stiff breezes above the system (wind shear) could prevent an official name designation based on wind intensity," DaSilva added.

Regardless of official designation based on wind criteria, the storm will bring locally torrential rain and the risk of flooding problems from coastal Texas to northern Florida and southern Georgia over the balance of this week.

Meanwhile, another area a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic coast is being watched closely into the end of the week.

"This system had an evident weak circulation in the cloud patterns into midweek," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

With the center of that circulation becoming better organized and centered more with thunderstorm activity, AccuWeather has dubbed the feature a tropical rainstorm as of the midday hours on Thursday.

"This budding feature has the potential to become a tropical depression or named tropical storm prior to pushing onshore in Atlantic Canada this weekend," DaSilva said.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is less than one for Atlantic Canada. The RealImpact scale is based on rain, storm surge and economic effects on the region, in addition to wind.

The main impacts will be a general 2-4 inches of rain that can trigger localized flooding and wind gusts of 40-60 mph that can lead to power outages focused mainly on Nova Scotia. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 6 inches and the Local StormMax™ wind gust is 70 mph.

Thousands of miles farther south, patches of potential tropical trouble extend from just off the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and include two separate areas with a medium chance of development within the next seven days.

A separate medium-risk area currently drifting westward across the Caribbean is not likely to organize and strengthen this week. However, it could escalate as it reaches southwestern Gulf of Mexico waters next week.

"Should this upcoming southwestern Gulf feature become a tropical depression or tropical storm next week, it will be a question of steering breezes at the time," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "These breezes may direct it westward into Mexico or perhaps allow it to drift northward and enter the bathtub of warm water over the central Gulf."

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The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Francine and Gordon.

What happened to the rapid start to the hurricane season?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has fallen below average pace, despite the record-setting 165-mph Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in July.

"The lull in tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes since Ernesto from Aug. 13 through Sept. 3, has not been witnessed since the 1968 season," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

La Niña was expected to be a major player at this point of the season, but it has been much slower to evolve and influence the Atlantic hurricane season. Other factors, such as dry, dusty air from Africa and widespread wind shear have also worked to limit tropical activity.

Conditions are expected to balance out as September progresses, but AccuWeather has lowered its initial forecast of 20-25 named storms to 16-20. This is the first of any sources to lower numbers from an anticipated highly active hurricane season for 2024.

Porter stated that an above-historical average number of named systems is still anticipated, with six to 10 hurricanes in total compared to the average of seven. The historical average number of named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season is 14.

"The list includes upcoming additional impacts on the U.S. from tropical systems over the remainder of the season, so people should not let their guard down based on what has been going on since mid-August and slightly lower numbers anticipated," Porter said, "It just takes one storm to lead to great risk to lives and property."

Despite the ongoing lull in early September, warm waters can foster rapid intensification of tropical systems, which can be of great concern when it occurs near population centers in coastal areas. Hurricane Ian from 2022, which struck southwest Florida is a prime example of such danger.

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