Atlantic tropical development risk to focus on areas close to US this week

While tropical development in the prime mid-season areas of the Atlantic will face hurdles, activity close in to the United States continues to bear watching for direct impacts over the next week or so.

Following the effects of two tropical rainstorms this weekend: one across the Bay of Campeche and a separate one approaching Atlantic Canada, AccuWeather meteorologists say that the next possible tropical threats are still lingering off of the western coast of Africa.

Early September is the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the main development area off the coast of Africa continues to struggle.

While this zone will continue to be watched because of its reputation for churning out storms, AccuWeather meteorologists will focus their attention on areas relatively close to the continental U.S. this week.

A potent tropical rainstorm pushed through Atlantic Canada at the start of this weekend with rain, gusty winds and rough seas.

Another tropical rainstorm, which unloaded many inches of rain from central Texas last weekend to the Gulf coast of the U.S. through Friday, continued to douse the southeastern corner of the U.S. into Saturday morning. However, this feature has now split into two parts.

One part will be a slow-moving area of low pressure that meanders and lingers off the southern Atlantic coast this week, and the other will remain over the Gulf of Mexico. While this second component will continue to produce clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the region, the focus has now shifted to a separate low in the Bay of Campeche.

This separate tropical rainstorm in the Bay of Campeche is now the primary concern for hurricane experts monitoring the region for development.

Through Friday, impacts ranging from rounds of heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will expand northward from the Bay of Campeche and far northeast Mexico to the Gulf Coast states. Due to expected heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge, the tropical rainstorm is rated as a 1 for the US, and less than 1 for Mexico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.

AccuWeather uses the term "tropical rainstorm" to refer to tropical entities that can bring significant impacts from rain and wind prior to official classification as a tropical depression or storm to raise public awareness of their disruptive, damaging and dangerous potential. Not all tropical rainstorms escalate to a depression or a tropical storm.

Residents along the Texas, Louisiana and eastern Mexico coasts, as well as offshore petroleum and fishing operations, should monitor for drenching thunderstorms as tropical moisture remains rich across the region.

Regardless of tropical development and strengthening, the tropical rainstorm across the Bay of Campeche will cause rounds of rain along much of the Gulf Coast region during the first part of this week. Because many of these areas have already been drenched with inches of rain in recent days, there will be an escalated risk of flooding.

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In the hilly terrain of southeastern Mexico and part of Central America, the effects of the approaching tropical wave from the Caribbean can trigger mudslides in addition to flash flooding.

How far north that the rain will get in the South Central states will depend on the track and strength of the western Gulf tropical feature this week. Its pathway into the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys will likely be blocked by a dome of high pressure that will create considerable late-summer heat.

Much of the Central states need drenching rain as water levels on the middle and lower Mississippi River and others in the region are at critically low levels, much as they were on occasion over the past two years around this time of year. The Mississippi and Ohio rivers are used extensively to transport grains and other commodities cost-efficiently through tug and barge operations. While dry and warm conditions are good for the harvest, low water levels can hinder the cheap transport that the barge system offers.

Meanwhile, thousands of miles farther to the east over the tropical Atlantic, tropical waves of low pressure continue to move westward from Africa. However, rather than flourishing upon reaching warm waters and moisture from the Atlantic, these systems continue to struggle due to areas of dry air and wind shear.

The persistence of both dry air and wind shear, along with warm air high up in the atmosphere, is keeping these features at bay. There's also a buzzsaw-like storm east of the Caribbean. Its wind shear would likely rip apart any budding tropical wave as it approaches from the east this week.

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