Tropical Storm Francine to become hurricane before making landfall US

A hurricane watch has been issued in Louisiana due to Tropical Storm Francine, which will strengthen as it advances across the Gulf of Mexico.

After an eerily quiet stretch in August and the first week of September, tropical activity in the Atlantic has ramped back up again. At 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, the tropical rainstorm that AccuWeather hurricane experts have been monitoring in the Bay of Campeche since Saturday, strengthened into Tropical Storm Francine. The storm is expected to curve northward and intensify into the next hurricane of the season over the upcoming days.

This week, rounds of heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and saturated ground could lead to downed trees, power outages and structural damage from portions of northeastern Mexico to the southern U.S.

Further intensification is expected over the Gulf waters

Francine, currently located off the coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, is expected to maintain or slowly strengthen early this week as it drifts northward, thanks to the abnormally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists say that Francine will reach hurricane strength (categorized on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds greater than 74 mph).

Sea surface temperatures are currently ranging between 86-88 degrees Fahrenheit, plenty warm enough to fuel Francine.

"As Francine continues to move over the warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico, we expect it to become even more organized. Increased wind intensity is expected ahead of landfall on Wednesday evening,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley.

A crucial window to monitor Francine will be from midday Tuesday to Wednesday, as this is when forecasters are most concerned about rapid strengthening.

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While the wind shear will increase over the northern Gulf Coast as Francine approaches, near all-time record high sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content could allow for rapid strengthening into a strong hurricane prior to landfall.

"We urge anyone with interests along the northern and western Gulf Coast to follow the progress of Francine very closely," explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. AccuWeather forecasters expect that Francine will become a Category 2 hurricane (with sustained winds greater than 96 mph) prior to landfall.

A hurricane watch is in effect for most of the coast of Louisiana, and tropical storm watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

While rounds of rain and thunderstorms have already spread to portions of the northeastern Mexican coastline, a more persistent deluge of moisture is projected to surge into southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama through Friday.

Bands of rain arrived in far-southern Texas by Monday morning, and is expected to progress northward, reaching the Louisiana coastline, by early Tuesday. From McAllen, Texas, to Shreveport, Louisiana, rainfall totals from Saturday to Friday are projected to range between 2-4 inches.

Directly along the Texas coast, including Brownsville, higher rainfall totals from 4-8 inches will be possible. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for heavy rainfall from Francine is 24 inches. A slight westward jog in the track of Francine could bring heavier rainfall to more of the Texas Coast.

This heavy rainfall can lead to flash flooding and travel disruptions across the region, especially in areas that have already received ample rainfall in the first week of September.

“One of the main concerns with this storm is that it is forecast to move into an area already impacted by heavy rain and flooding from a separate tropical rainstorm this past week. The ground across far eastern Texas and into Louisiana is already saturated, so it would not take much rain to cause flooding across these areas," pointed out Longley.

Gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will reach southeast Texas and the southern Louisiana coastline by Wednesday, with the strongest gusts expected around or especially along the eastern half of the point of landfall.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say that 100- to 120-mph wind gusts are possible along the Gulf coast through Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 130 mph. Wind gusts of this magnitude are likely to cause widespread power outages

Impacts from wind will begin to subside as the storm loses wind intensity and tracks inland; however, rounds of rain and flash flooding will be possible along the Mississippi Valley into late week.

Due to expected heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge, Francince is rated as a 2 for the U.S., and a one for Mexico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.

Near the coast, isolated tornadoes will be possible as clusters of robust thunderstorms advance inland from mid to late week. Louisiana residents in the zone marked to have a 'high' risk to lives and property are advised to have a safety and evacuation plan in place, as conditions could become very dangerous.

Rough surf and coastal inundation will also be expected as this tropical disturbance approaches the Gulf Coast. From Wednesday to Thursday, particularly from the eastern Texas coast to Louisiana, storm surge is likely to range between 1 and 3 feet from Galveston Bay, Texas, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Near the point of landfall near the west-central Louisiana coast, an area of even higher storm surge of 10 to 15 feet can occur.

Louisiana's recent hurricane history

The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021. Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana had eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida. In addition, Hurricane Sally tracked just east of the state’s boundaries in 2020, and Tropical Depression Nicholas passed through the southwest part of the state in 2021. Two tropical rainstorms, previously tropical storms, also affected the state: Olga in 2019 and Beta in 2020.

Francine: What's in a name?

This is the first usage of the name "Francine" in the Atlantic. Previously, the alternate spelling "Francene" was a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific in 1967 and 1975, and a Category 3 hurricane in 1971. None affected land.

Additional Atlantic development on the horizon

AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that tropical entities are likely to form further across the open waters of the central and eastern Atlantic over the upcoming week.

Two waves are being monitored for tropical development. The first area of concern is located a few hundred miles west of Cape Verde and will slowly track westward across the open Atlantic over the upcoming days. From early to midweek, it will pose a high risk for development.

The second tropical wave is expected to emerge off Africa over the upcoming days and is projected to advance in a generally westward direction as the week progresses. This feature poses a high risk for development from mid to late week.

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