New homebrew tropical threat emerging along southeast US coast

As showers and thunderstorms gather along the Carolina coast this weekend a tropical storm may evolve on the heels of Francine and newly formed Tropical Depression Seven in the eastern Atlantic.

AccuWeather meteorologists warn that soon after Francine moves inland and loses wind intensity over the central United States, a homebrew tropical threat may emerge along the Carolina coast this weekend to early next week.

A homebrew storm is one that forms close to the coast of the U.S. and is most common during the early part of the hurricane season. The official Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1 through Nov. 30.

AccuWeather meteorologists have begun to refer to the feature as a tropical wind and rainstorm to raise public awareness of the anticipated impacts to parts of the Southeast states.

As Francine moves inland, winds will quickly diminish Wednesday night and Thursday, but heavy rain will spread northward through the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. This will cause flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, as well as along some small streams and secondary rivers.

As Francine continues to unwind late this week, some rain will reach parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

Some of Francine's energy will transfer to the warm Gulf Stream waters just off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend, where a storm will brew and likely take on at least some tropical characteristics this weekend.

It is not out of the question that coastal interests in the Carolinas may have to deal with a landfilling tropical system early next week with all the impacts of a tropical storm.

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"We continue to monitor the area just off the Carolina and Georgia coasts for tropical development this weekend to early next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "This system has the potential to spread heavy rain to the Carolinas and perhaps the lower part of the mid-Atlantic as it drifts to the west and northwest."

This feature will most likely not have enough time to become a hurricane, but there is a risk of it becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Beyond Francine, the next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Gordon and Helene. A budding tropical cyclone over the eastern Atlantic will likely grab the name Gordon this week. The feature was upgraded to a Tropical Depression 7 on Wednesday. While this system could become the next hurricane in the Atlantic, it may remain at sea for its duration.

How much rain falls and how strong winds become in coastal areas of the Carolinas, Georgia and southern Virginia will depend on how quickly the storm organizes and strengthens before drifting inland and then its forward speed over the balance of next week.

A period of gusty winds will lead to building seas, rough surf, strong rip currents and beach erosion in coastal areas. There may also be the threat of severe thunderstorms that produce a few tornadoes and waterspouts.

Weak steering breezes may cause the storm to stall after moving inland over the Southeast states.

Depending on the storm's proximity to the coast, it may continue to funnel Atlantic moisture well inland to the southern Appalachians. Moisture may get stretched on the backside of high pressure from the Carolinas to a portion of the Ohio Valley and possibly expand farther to the north over the central Appalachians.

Areas of drought have been increasing over the interior East, including the southern Appalachians and the Ohio Valley, so any non-flooding rainfall would likely be welcomed.

High pressure is likely to remain strong enough to keep tropical downpours away from New England next week, but most likely, moisture will erode the dry conditions in the mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes areas from mid- to late week.

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