Hurricane Helene to roar ashore in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4

As the hours tick away before Helene strikes Florida late Thursday night with life-threatening conditions and the potential for widespread extreme property damage, it will strengthen quickly and become a major hurricane.

Key takeaways:

•Helene is poised to make a quick landfall in Florida's Big Bend area as a Category 4 hurricane Thursday night.

•Widespread extreme damage will occur where the eye wall moves ashore.

•Life-threatening, damaging and disruptive impacts will occur hundreds of miles inland due to Helene's large size and quick forward speed.

As the hours continue to tick away before Helene makes landfall in northern Florida Thursday night with life-threatening conditions and the potential for widespread extreme property damage, it will strengthen quickly and become a major hurricane, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

As of Thursday midday, Helene was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph sustained winds--just 1 mph away from Category 3. However, AccuWeather meteorologists expect Helene to continue to intensify.

Helene is forecast to peak as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph while over the Gulf of Mexico before landfall. Depending on the integrity of the eye wall, Helene could retain that intensity up to the time of landfall Thursday night.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for the Florida Big Bend area to just north of Tampa, while tropical storm warnings were in effect for much of the rest of the Florida coastline, except for the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

"Confidence continues to grow among our experts for a landfall Thursday night in the Big Bend area of the Florida Gulf Coast, which is the zone from the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle to the northwestern part of the Florida Peninsula," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "At the time of landfall, Helene is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane."

The latest information suggests that landfall may be just east of Apalachicola, Florida, and centered more on communities along the shores of Apalachee Bay. The center could then pass near or just to the east of Tallahassee, Florida, which is inland of the coast.

There is still some risk the storm may drift a bit to the west or east, but steering breezes are more deliberate with this storm over the Gulf of Mexico compared to some in the past that have shifted their tracks considerably in the final hours before landfall.

At landfall Thursday evening - between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT - Helene will have maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph, with much stronger gusts to at least 150 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph.

The sustained winds forecast are the intensity of a Category 4, while the StormMax gust is a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. At this intensity, many trees will be uprooted, roofs will be removed and some structures may totally fail.

The impacts of a hurricane go well beyond its potentially destructive winds. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes incorporates storm surge, flooding, rainfall, population density and economic impacts in addition to maximum winds. Due to complications from torrential rainfall, these impacts occur not only along the coast but hundreds of miles inland.

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The AccuWeather RealImpact for Helene has been raised to 4.

By far, the most dangerous part of a hurricane, as it approaches the coast and makes landfall, is the storm surge. This potentially life-threatening aspect of a hurricane is the height of the water "above" astronomical tides. In a matter of minutes, water can surge with depth and force and lead to drowning.

Because of the shape of the coast around Apalachee Bay, Florida, which can trap excess water, and the forecast intensity and track of Helene, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a storm surge up to the height of a two-story building, or 15-20 feet, Thursday night. At this height, some single-story buildings along the coast may be completely underwater.

However, a significant and dangerous storm surge will extend well to the south and east of where the eye comes ashore. For example, a peak storm surge of 6 to perhaps 10 feet can occur on Thursday night in portions of Tampa Bay, where west winds will cause the water to pile up on the eastern parts of the bay.

Because of strong easterly winds off the Atlantic Ocean, a significant storm surge and coastal flooding are expected from northeastern Florida to Georgia and South Carolina. Portions of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, could be inundated from Thursday night to Friday.

A tremendous amount of rain will fall in northern Florida, with rain heavy enough to cause travel problems and lead to minor flooding in southern and eastern Florida and the potential for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, especially the eastern part of the panhandle, with a general 8-12 inches of rain forecast.

The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for Helene is 36 inches, but may occur hundreds of miles inland of the Gulf coast.

Many hurricanes that make landfall release energy that can trigger severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts. Every hurricane is different, but Helene has the potential to spawn multiple tornadoes, especially to the east of its track.

Conditions may cause considerable risk to lives and property even as the storm travels well inland from strong winds and flooding rain in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, western North Carolina, the Virginia Panhandle, eastern Tennessee and perhaps parts of Kentucky and West Virginia.

The dangers range from rapid urban flooding, flash flooding along small streams, significant rises on the rivers and mudslides in the mountainous terrain.

The combination of pouring rain, increasingly wet soil and strong winds will lead to the risk of falling trees, broken tree limbs and widespread power outages.

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