Budding tropical rainstorm to target central, southern Florida with flooding

A dangerous, damaging and disruptive situation is likely to unfold in central and southern Florida next week as a developing tropical rainstorm may evolve into a named tropical cyclone and deliver flooding downpours.

Even as Hurricane Helene was pressing toward the Florida coast, AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists has been monitoring part of the Gulf of Mexico for yet another round of tropical trouble. Indications point toward a tropical feature that will organize and strike the Florida Peninsula next week with torrential rain and the likelihood of flooding.

Thunderstorms have been persistently erupting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. Thunderstorm activity is likely to continue in this area and expand over a large part of the gulf through the weekend and into early next week, possibly giving birth to a tropical depression or perhaps a named tropical storm.

AccuWeather has begun to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm to raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property.

Once a storm center has formed, even before any official tropical depression or potential tropical cyclone is named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), AccuWeather will begin to issue a forecast track cone to assist in planning and preparation.

At this time, the greatest threat to lives and property appears to be due to torrential rainfall that can lead to dangerous, damaging and disruptive urban flooding in central and South Florida, beginning as early as Sunday and lasting through the middle of next week.

Should the system evolve to its full potential, a general 1 to perhaps 2 feet of rain may fall on portions of central and South Florida with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches.

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Rainfall rates of several inches per hour can occur in the major metro areas, easily overwhelming the storm drainage system in cities such as Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Melbourne.

Even though much of Florida's soil is very sandy and can absorb heavy rain quickly, there will still be enough runoff that works into creeks, lakes and rivers to trigger flooding. Water levels may rise quickly on the smaller streams and lakes but may take a week or two to cycle through rivers such as the Peace, Imperial, Hillsborough, Myakka and St. Johns.

"The feature will take an east-northeast track across the southern Gulf of Mexico where waters are sufficiently warm, in the 80s F, and wind shear, disruptive breezes, are low," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Because of these two key conditions, our team, led by Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, feels there is the likelihood of the feature developing into a tropical depression and the possibility of it becoming a named tropical storm. Should the feature spend enough time over the Gulf of Mexico before crossing Florida, it could even evolve into a hurricane."

The stronger the system becomes before landfall, the greater the impacts from strong winds and storm surges.

Even if an official depression or tropical storm does not occur, the dangers from flooding are likely, and there may still be locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts.

Milton is the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, following recent mid-ocean storms Kirk and Leslie.

Kirk becomes a monster hurricane; Leslie strengthening

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two potent tropical cyclones in the middle of the ocean.

Kirk has strengthened rapidly this week and is now the third major hurricane of the season. It has joined Helene and Beryl, which have reached at least Category 4 intensity. Leslie is also forecast to become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane sometime this weekend to early next week.

Both Kirk and Leslie may be spinning across the central Atlantic for many days and well into next week. Next week, Kirk will turn northeastward and is likely to bring significant impacts to parts of Ireland, the United Kingdom and the western European mainland as a formidable tropical wind and rainstorm.

Leslie is hundreds of miles southeast of Kirk and is forecast to track farther to the west but will still remain to the northeast of the Leeward Islands next week.

Both Kirk and Leslie will raise concerns for transatlantic vessels. Kirk has already generated monstrous seas. Wave heights near Kirk on Friday were estimated to be 35-45 feet.

As swells move outward from both storms, they will show up in the form of rough surf and frequent and strong rip currents along the northeast-facing beaches of the Caribbean, the United States Atlantic Coast, Atlantic Canada and the shores of western Europe from this weekend to next week.

There have been a total of seven hurricanes, not yet counting Leslie and the budding system in the Gulf of Mexico, so far in 2024 with 12 tropical depressions that went on to become named systems. There have been four named systems that made landfall in the U.S., along with an unnamed tropical rainstorm that blasted North Carolina in mid-September with torrential downpours and storm surge flooding.

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