Florida faces major river flooding following Hurricane Milton’s deluge

Nearly every creek or river from west-central to northeastern Florida will experience moderate to major flooding in the coming days to the middle of next week.

After Hurricane Milton blasted Florida with 5-20 inches of rain in a matter of hours, central and northern Florida lakes and rivers are on the rise, and some may remain above flood stage well into next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

The amount of rain that Milton dumped on the central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula, mainly along and north of Interstate 4, is equivalent to five to 10 times the historical average rainfall for October in many cases. As feared, even Florida's sandy soil could not absorb the deluge completely.

As water recedes from city streets and low-lying areas, people who have dealt with or escaped power outages and property damage from Milton's powerful winds may face delayed rising water from a nearby river.

Most rivers in Florida have headwaters that are only a couple dozen feet above sea level before draining to the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or bays. Because of this, they tend to have a slow flow and behave like larger rivers, like the Mississippi, even though the volume of water they handle is much less.

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It can take many days, a week or more for waters to surge and recede, unlike in hilly or mountainous terrain, where flooding cycles in a matter of hours to a few days.

National Weather Service hydrologists and AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring Florida rivers where more rain fell than the sandy soil can absorb. Due to the magnitude of runoff entering the river systems, flooding is already occurring or will be unavoidable in the coming days.

The Hillsborough River at Zephyrhills, Florida, has already surged to record high levels with an additional rise in store and a forecast crest above 16 feet.

The St. John's River at Astor, Florida, is forecast to hover just below the record October 2022 stage of 4.7 feet into next week.

Nearly every creek or river from west-central to northeastern Florida will experience moderate to major flooding by the middle of next week. In some cases, the smaller-volume rivers will cycle up and down by the end of the weekend. In other cases, such as along portions of the St. John's River, it may take a week to a few weeks for waters to drop below flood stage.

Some roads, farmland, homes and businesses may be flooded, and in some cases, the level of flooding may be comparable to that of Hurricane Ian in September 2022.

Away from river flooding, the weather will generally cooperate for recovery, damage assessment and cleanup operations in the coming days over the Florida Peninsula. Humidity levels will lower in the northern and central counties of the state and help to chase away lingering showers. Some showers will be produced by a flow of air originating from the Atlantic from the central counties on south.

The weather will cooperate in Helene-ravaged areas of the southeastern United States as well. The only potential problems may stem from patchy morning fog that can briefly inhibit airlift operations.

Experts urge that people cleaning up after Milton (and Helene) wait until utility crews have removed downed lines, which may still be live in some cases. Wild animals, including poisonous snakes, may have been displaced by the storm. Appropriate shoes should be worn for protection against dangerous objects, including sharp debris.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring a forecast area of showers and thunderstorms that has the potential to evolve into a tropical depression or storm as early as next weekend in the western Caribbean.

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