How much snow will fall this winter? Will atmospheric rivers drench California? Will it be a good year for skiers? Find out the answers to these questions and more with AccuWeather's 2024-2025 U.S. winter forecast.
Meteorological winter is just around the corner, officially beginning in less than two months on Sunday, Dec. 1. The season will have some meteorological twists and turns that may end with a surge of snow and blasts of bitterly cold air.
As people prepare their skis and snowblowers with snow on their minds, AccuWeather forecasters predict that the season will be mild for most of the United States, similar to last winter, which was the warmest on record. However, that is only part of the story, as waves of frigid air will periodically send freezing air across the country, along with more chances for snow.
So dig out your winter coats from the closet and get ready for the colder days ahead with AccuWeather's 2024-2025 U.S. winter forecast.
3 key factors in the winter forecast
One of the major elements considered by AccuWeather's long-range meteorologists when crafting the winter forecast was La Niña. This phenomenon occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period, which can significantly influence weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms.
"La Niña will be weak for most of the winter," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. "A weaker La Niña can allow other signals to drive the pattern, more variability throughout the winter."
Another player in the winter forecast is the polar vortex.
Based on data from previous winters with a similar setup to the upcoming season, Pastelok said that February is the most probable time frame for the polar vortex to usher a blast of bitterly cold air across the eastern U.S., but added that it is not a certainty.
A third factor is the temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern and northeastern Pacific. Water temperatures in the Gulf are expected to be higher than historical averages, which can translate to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S. The warmer-than-average water temperatures in the northern Pacific could alter the storm track at times during the winter for the West Coast, impacting the entire U.S.
Bookend winter that could end with a bang in Northeast, Great Lakes
Snow shovels will be needed across the Northeast and Midwest this winter, although they could gather dust during part of the season as the weather patterns play tug-of-war between mild and rainy, and cold and snowy.
Most areas in the Northeast will receive more snow this season than last winter. An uptick in snow is also likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
However, the snow will be broken up by pauses in the cold, wintry weather, especially in the middle part of the season, as milder air from the Pacific flows across the country.
December is the first month of meteorological winter and will bring brief blasts of cold air that will trigger lake-effect snow. This is the opposite of last December when little lake effect was seen in the typical areas, including Buffalo, New York, Marquette, Michigan, Erie, Pennsylvania, and Cleveland. Snow is also possible this December in areas farther away from the lakes from typical early-season winter storms.
Big changes will unfold during the opening weeks of 2025 as a new weather pattern will promote milder air and less snow across the eastern half of the nation.
"The heart of the ski season can be rough in the East," Pastelok explained. Even at ski resorts where there is a healthy base of snow, slopes may turn icy as the snow melts during the daytime and then freezes overnight.
A backend surge to winter will bring the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and through the Northeast, according to Pastelok. The risk of snow may also be accompanied by the polar vortex. "The Northeast and mid-Atlantic ski season could be saved late if this occurs," he added.
New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are a sampling of the cities predicted to have more snow than last winter, in part due to more snow opportunities in February. Places such as Chicago and Buffalo may not only have more snow than last winter, but they also have a chance of snowfall totals for the season piling up more than the historical average this winter.
Warm winter to curb heating demand in southern, central US
Winter will get off to a warm start for millions across the Gulf Coast states and Plains, with it feeling more like an extension of autumn rather than the start of the coldest time of the year. And this will be the trend for most of the upcoming season.
"December through February, the warmest areas of the country, compared to the average, are going to be from the South, central southern Plains states through the Mississippi Valley, up through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys," Pastelok explained.
A combination of La Niña keeping the storm track over the northern part of the country most of the winter, above-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, and mild Pacific air occasionally flowing into the Plains and East will limit the potential for cold air to have a sustained presence across the southern U.S.
Temperatures throughout the season could run more than 3 degrees above the historical average for most of the region, including Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta and Nashville. This will result in a noticeable reduction in heating demand, which could translate to lower heating bills for families and businesses.
If a significant surge of cold air delivers subfreezing weather to the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida, it is most likely to occur in February, although the month as a whole is still projected to be milder than normal.
The widespread warmth will be paired with drier conditions along the Gulf coast states, which could cause drought conditions to grow and expand in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas.
When storms do roll through, they could bring a heightened risk of severe weather due to the overall mild conditions and the warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok. “With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”
Atmospheric rivers to drench West Coast, spread snow over the Rockies
It felt more like summer across part of the West as October kicked off with record-breaking temperatures, but the heat will soon fade and the wet season will shift into gear before the official arrival of winter.
The frequency of rain will gradually trend upward in November and December, along with snow in the mountains. "I think skiing in the West is looking really good," Pastelok said. "I think it's going to get kick-started right for the holiday season," he added, saying Thanksgiving and Christmas look very good for skiers.
Atmospheric rivers and storms from the Pacific Ocean will focus on the Northwest and Northern California before traversing over the Rocky Mountains as winter gets underway in December. Forecasters are warning, though, that big changes will arrive around the time that 2025 begins.
"Look for a potential shift in the storm track midwinter," Pastelok said. This new pattern will open the door for storms to track farther south over Central and Southern California and push inland.
January could be the wettest month of the winter for Los Angeles and San Diego, as well as areas farther inland across the Southwest.
In February, the storms' focus will shift north, once again focusing on the Pacific Northwest and northern and central Rockies. As a result, the ski season could come to an early end at the ski resorts in the mountains of Southern California, northern Arizona and New Mexico.
La Niña winters typically do not result in frequent atmospheric rivers in California, but with a weaker La Niña predicted this winter, it could allow for other factors to dictate the West Coast weather pattern. This is what happened in the La Niña winter of 2022-23 when nearly 40 atmospheric rivers hit the western U.S., many of which impacted California.
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