Tracking Nadine and a Caribbean tropical rainstorm, possibly Oscar

AccuWeather meteorologists are currently tracking Nadine and a tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean.

While the clock is ticking on the strengthening window for the tropical rainstorm north of Hispaniola, it will bring the risk of flooding downpours, and has a chance of becoming a tropical depression or named tropical storm into this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nadine formed in the western Caribbean early Saturday morning.

One rainstorm has been tracking westward much of this week, just north of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. The other has been hovering over the western part of the Caribbean Sea most of this week, which has since become Tropical Storm Nadine.

"Dry air and disruptive breezes (wind shear) held back the intensification process on both systems through Thursday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said, "However, wind shear is dropping off for both, so there is a window where either or both systems can ramp up into Saturday."

Oscar is the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tracking Nadine in the western Caribbean

The tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean has organized and strengthened into Tropical Storm Nadine early Saturday morning and will track westward into Belize on Saturday. Prior to making landfall in Belize, a quick strengthening process over the warm waters can allow for further intensification.

Beach, fishing, small craft and cruise interests should be prepared for rapidly building surf and deteriorating weather conditions into Saturday over the northwestern Caribbean.

Nadine will deliver torrential downpours and gusty winds to Belize, southeastern Mexico, northern Honduras and northern Guatemala through much of this weekend. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 1.

A general 1-4 inches of rain will fall with pockets of 4-8 inches, mainly in southern Mexico, where there is an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 25 inches. Where more than a few inches of rain pours down, there is the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in hilly terrain.

Wind gusts can become strong enough to trigger sporadic power outages in clusters of heavy thunderstorms. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Nadine is 80 mph.

While mountainous terrain in southern Mexico and Central America is likely to lead to the total demise of Nadine, there is a chance the circulation survives and reaches the eastern Pacific, where regeneration or a new storm could evolve next week.

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Tracking the northern Caribbean tropical rainstorm

The Caribbean tropical rainstorm north of the Caribbean islands also has the potential to become a tropical depression or storm this weekend.

The period of strengthening will likely end as it encounters increasing wind shear, which will help to turn it southwestward with close encounters to the large and mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba later this weekend. Once it passes through these islands, it may dissipate or continue on as a poorly organized tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean.

The rainstorm will still bring building seas, dangerous surf and increasing downpours for a time from Puerto Rico, westward to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Some gusty winds and heavy rain will also push into the Turks and Caicos.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for the northern Islands of the Caribbean is less than 1.

Enough rain can be squeezed out on the mountainous terrain and the steep slopes to trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. While the islands have encountered much worse over the years in terms of wind, there can still be sporadic power outages due to locally strong gusts in clusters of thunderstorms.

Quick summary of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season so far

The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30. Thus far, there have been 14 tropical depressions and tropical storms with nine hurricanes, including four major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl set early-season intensity and formation records with maximum sustained winds reaching 165 mph on July 2 over the eastern Caribbean.

Damage and fatalities from late-September Category 4 Hurricane Helene (140-mph maximum sustained winds) continue to be assessed. Still, the Gulf of Mexico hurricane is already one of the deadliest and most destructive in U.S. history.

At one point on Oct. 6, there were three simultaneous hurricanes: Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

Milton, in the Gulf of Mexico, was not only the strongest hurricane of the 2024 season so far but one of the strongest ever in the Atlantic basin, with maximum sustained winds reaching 180 mph on Oct 7.

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