Warmth and lack of rain to worsen growing drought in Northeast

Following a wet beginning to August in much of the Northeast, precipitation has been well below the historical average since then. This month, some locations are on pace for their driest October on record. In fact, some places may have their driest all-time month.

Drought which rapidly expanded in Ohio and West Virginia late in the summer has now stretched into the Northeast this fall. While the drought is not as bad as farther west, portions of the region are now in moderate to severe drought.

Although the sun angle is not as high as it is during the summer, the drought has been exacerbated by temperatures above the historical average. Despite some frosty mornings over the interior Northeast, the dryness of both the air and the ground have led to warm afternoons. When the ground is dry, less of the sun's energy needs to go into evaporating moisture. This allows for more efficient heating of the air.

On Monday, some locations are forecast to be well above the historical average. Several cities are even likely to challenge daily records.

While record highs will largely be restricted to the Northeast, much of the region from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will also be in the warm flow around an area of high pressure. Widespread high temperatures in the 70s and 80s F are expected for both Monday and Tuesday.

With historical average temperatures rapidly dropping during this time of year, temperatures that are typical in the summer can to tie or break records. This will again be apparent on Tuesday. For example, the historical average high in Philadelphia peaks at 88 degrees in July. In late October, temperatures do not even need to get that high to set records. Even if temperatures fall just short of records, it will certainly feel more like the end of summer than the middle of fall.

The lack of rain in the Northeast has been rather remarkable. New York City and Wilmington, Delaware are just two examples of cities where only a trace of rain has fallen for the entire month of October so far. In Philadelphia, not a single drop of rain has fallen this month. This has also been the case farther to the south.

A chance for rain will arrive with a cold front by Wednesday and Wednesday night. Unfortunately, this will only be for northern locations. In addition, even where it does rain, there will not be much. Furthermore, the streak of no rain is likely to continue along much of I-95.

There will be a chance for rain to reach the coast of northern New England on Thursday, before the moisture moves away. South of there, the only noticeable effect on Thursday will be temperatures lower than earlier in the week.

The lower temperatures will put a fall feel back into the air. Although the recent chilly nights and some episodes of wind have knocked many leaves off the trees in northern areas, locations farther to the south still have some nice colors. That being said, even in more southern locations, some trees have shed their leaves early due to the drought.

For anyone who is still not quite ready for warmth to end, there is good news. The chill for late this week is again expected to replaced by higher temperatures next weekend. With that said, temperatures are not forecast to be quite as high as this weekend.