Central US to face record warmth, wildfires and severe storms as October comes to a close

AccuWeather meteorologists say that Mother Nature is poised to whip up a wild end to the month across the middle of the nation.

A wild end to the month is in store across the center of the United States that will require residents and visitors to remain alert for changing weather conditions, AccuWeather forecasters say.

"A powerful storm is expected to eject out of the Rockies and into the center of the nation early this week, bringing a multi-day stretch of impactful weather," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

Summerlike temperatures and gusty winds will build across the Plains states ahead of a cold front poised to bring a big cooldown and snow to the West early in the week. This clash of seasons will not only set up a ripe environment for wildfire growth and spread, but also severe weather.

Record warmth, fierce winds to fuel high fire danger

Dozens of record highs will be in jeopardy from Texas to Minnesota and Michigan spanning Monday and Tuesday as warm air surges into the region on gusty, south-southwesterly winds.

"Temperatures will be 15-25 degrees Fahrenheit above the historical average in the Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. This will put highs at levels more typical of the summer months, with widespread 70s and 80s. Some locations in the South Central states will make a run at 90.

Minneapolis is one of a multitude of big cities that are expected to challenge record highs. Tuesday's high will approach 80 when the historical average is in the lower 50s. If the high eclipses 78, that would break the daily record set in 1922.

Perhaps even more impressive than how hot it will get during the day will be how warm it stays at night early this week. Low temperatures will be closer to where the historical average highs should be at this time of year, or even above these marks, generally in the 50s and 60s with records likely to be shattered.

While the warm weather will be good news for fans of summer weather and those looking to delay heating bills, it will escalate concerns of drought and wildfires. According to the latest United States Drought Monitor, every state in the U.S., including Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico, is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions.

"Powerful winds, gusting most frequently between 40 and 60 mph, will lead to a high risk for rapidly spreading fires across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday," Buckingham said.

Experts urge all outdoor burning to be delayed until the risk of rapid fire growth and spread has lessened. Matches, cigarette butts and other spark-inducing items should be properly discarded.

The gusty winds will not only lead to a significant increase in the fire danger but also create concerns for blowing dust as well as difficult driving for high-profile vehicles.

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Severe weather to ignite by Tuesday night

As the cold front gradually moves eastward and collides with the summerlike warmth, rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to break out.

"Late Tuesday, the risk for severe thunderstorms will ramp up from the south-central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Damaging wind gusts and hail can occur within some of these storms," Buckingham said.

Tuesday's severe risk may be preceded by thunderstorms with small hail and downpours across the upper Great Lakes on Monday night. These hail-producers are expected to develop along the leading edge of the warm air surge.

An added risk to Tuesday’s severe thunderstorm threat is that many of these thunderstorms will be most numerous at night, adding to the potential danger they may pose.

"The thunderstorm risk will likely extend into the day on Wednesday, shifting a bit farther to the south and east," Buckingham said. Damaging winds and hail are likely to be the main hazards at midweek, in addition to the development of heavy rain and localized flooding.

The stormy weather will continue into Halloween for part of the Central states, resulting in some trick-or-treaters needing to put a rain jacket over their costumes.

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