Pacific tropical activity may ramp up near Hawaii

Tropical activity may be heating up over the Pacific and not only may one feature being monitored track close to Hawaii, but there may be an increase in trade winds, which could raise the wildfire danger.

While the central and eastern Pacific have been relatively quiet thus far this hurricane season, AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking several features that could evolve into tropical storms in the coming days, and some may track in Hawaii's general direction.

"Aside from the potential impacts from rain and seas, increasing trade winds in lieu of a close encounter could raise the wildfire risk," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said.

The first tropical concern is located about 1,000 miles to the east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and it has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm as it passes well to the south of the islands early next week.

Farther out over the eastern Pacific Ocean, there are two tropical waves of low pressure that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring. Should they develop and survive, one or both could wander relatively close to the islands later in August. At least one of the two systems has a high chance of developing.

Last August, Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed well to the south of the islands. Even though the powerful core of the hurricane remained far away from the islands, there was a significant difference in atmospheric pressure between the hurricane and strong high pressure over the north-central Pacific.

The effect was to increase the northeasterly trade winds on the islands.

Winds became so strong that they downed trees and power lines, which sparked rapidly spreading wildfires that became Hawaii's greatest natural disaster. The most devastating fire occurred on the island of Maui, where more than 100 people were killed and at least 2,200 buildings were destroyed.

The setup for next week is similar but far less intense than in August of 2023, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Drought Expert Brett Anderson said.

"The high-pressure area is not nearly as strong as last August, and the system passing by to the south is not the caliber of Hurricane Dora," Anderson explained, "So, factoring this in, the trade winds should not be as enhanced with the first system passing by as with Dora in 2023."

The two tropical waves of low pressure are a long way off, and much may happen with them in the coming days.

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"It is possible that at least one of the two eastern Pacific systems may get close enough to Hawaii late in the month to bring more direct impacts," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Those impacts could range from an uptick in seas and trade winds around the islands to perhaps strong winds and torrential rain. Any increase in trade winds where brush and vegetation are dry due to drought would raise the risk of wildfires.

Current soil conditions vary greatly, according to the United States Drought Monitor. There was no drought on the northernmost part of the Big Island, but pockets of severe to extreme drought exist throughout the islands.

"While this setup does not appear to be as intense as the unusual setup of August 2023, we want to raise awareness for people, businesses and government officials that the trade winds can increase at times over the coming weeks, which given the pockets of severe to extreme drought in parts of the islands, may result in a localized significant increase in wildfire risk," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said, "People should be especially careful with open flames or when conducting other activities that can result in sparks to not create fires which can quickly spread especially if gusty winds occur."

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