Tropical rainstorm forms in the warm Gulf waters, with sites set on the South US coast

The Atlantic hurricane season is showing fresh signs on activity, with the latest feature being a newly-formed tropical rainstorm in the Gulf of Mexico.

After an eerily quiet stretch in August and the first week of September, tropical activity in the Atlantic has ramped back up again. Late Saturday, AccuWeather hurricane experts say that a tropical rainstorm formed in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to curve northward and intensify across the warm waters of the Gulf over the upcoming days.

This week, rounds of heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and saturated ground could lead to downed trees, power outages and structural damage from portions of northeastern Mexico to the southern U.S.

Further intensification is expected over the Gulf waters

The tropical system, currently located off the coast of the Mexican state of Tabasco, is forecast to strengthen to tropical-storm strength (categorized on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds greater than 39 mph) by midweek as it advances northward over the abnormally warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico.

Sea surface temperatures are currently ranging between 86-88 degrees Fahrenheit, while the minimum threshold for tropical development is around 80-81 degrees F.

The next tropical storm name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Francine.

"As the rainstorm enters into the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, we expect this rainstorm to gain organization and wind intensity over the course of this week before making landfall along the southern Gulf Coast,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley.

A crucial window to monitor this tropical rainstorm will be from late Tuesday to Wednesday, as this is when forecasters are most concerned for rapid strengthening.

"While the wind shear over the tropical system will increase as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, near all-time record high sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content could allow for rapid strengthening into a hurricane prior to landfall. We urge anyone with interests along the northern and western Gulf Coast to follow the progress of this rainstorm very closely," explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

While rounds of rain and thunderstorms have already spread to portions of the northeastern Mexican coastline, a more persistent deluge of moisture is projected to surge into southeast Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama through Friday.

By Monday morning, bands of rain will begin to arrive along the far southern tip of Texas, reaching the Louisiana coastline by early Tuesday. From McAllen, Texas, to Shreveport, Louisiana, rainfall totals from Saturday to Friday are projected to range between 2-4 inches.

Directly along the Texas coast, including Brownsville and Houston, higher rainfall totals from 4-8 inches will be possible. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for heavy rainfall from this tropical rainstorm is 24 inches.

This heavy rainfall can lead to flash flooding and travel disruptions across the region, especially areas that have already received ample rainfall over the last week.

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“One of the main concerns with this storm is that it is forecast to move into an area already impacted by heavy rain and flooding from a separate tropical rainstorm this past week. The ground across far eastern Texas and into Louisiana is already saturated, so it would not take much rain to cause flooding across these areas," pointed out Longley.

Gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will reach southeast Texas and the southern Louisiana by Wednesday evening, with the strongest gust expected around, especially along the eastern half, of the point of landfall.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say 60- to 80-mph wind gusts are possible along the Gulf coast through Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 100 mph. Impacts from wind will begin to subside as the storm loses wind intensity and tracks inland; however, rounds of rain and flash flooding will be possible along the Mississippi Valley into late week.

Near the coast, isolated tornadoes will be possible as clusters or robust thunderstorms advance inland from mid- to late week. Louisiana residents in the zone marked to have a 'high' risk to lives and property are advised to have a safety and evacuation plan in place, as conditions could become very dangerous.

Rough surf and coastal inundation will also be expected as this tropical system approaches the Gulf Coast. Particularly along the Louisiana coastline from Wednesday to Thursday, storm surge is likely to range between 1-3 feet from Port Arthur, Texas, to Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Near the point of landfall at the central Louisiana coast, an area of even higher storm surge of 3-6 feet can occur.

Additional development on the horizon

Across the open waters of the central and eastern Atlantic, AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that there are additional chances for tropical systems to form over the upcoming week.

Two waves are being monitored for a medium chance of tropical development. The first area of concern is located a few hundred miles west of Cape Verde and will slowly track westward across the open Atlantic over the upcoming days.

The second tropical wave is expected to emerge off Africa over the upcoming days, and is projected to advance in a general westward direction as the week progresses.

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