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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Onshore flow will increase again next week with rough seas & surf = a high rip current risk.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
(1) ‘91-L′ - The Caribbean wave I’ve been tracking for the past week reached the Yucatan Peninsula Friday & is emerging over the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile... weak surface low pressure near the coast of Texas has been drifting southward. As hypothesized Fri., it appears these two may interact to gradually develop a tropical system over the far Western Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models vary on track & intensity with the GFS & Canadian the strongest likely because of more time over water due to a north or even north/northeast movement putting coastal Texas & even Louisiana potentially in line for at least a strong tropical storm if not hurricane. The European model on the other hand - along with Climavision’s ‘horizon’ model are less robust primarily due to a more west position bringing land into play sooner. These variables will indeed be the primary drivers in strength of any possible tropical cyclone. Personally - I think we have to watch for at least a little more easterly position given a stationary front remains from the Western Gulf all the way to Florida while weak to moderate upper level troughing persists over the Central & Eastern U.S. If ridging stays west while the trough continues over the Eastern U.S. with enough of a softness extending all the way to the Northern Gulf then any tropical disturbance ay have the necessary alleyway to move more north & northeast. In any case... folks all along the Gulf Coast - & especially from Texas to Louisiana - should stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
(2) We’re also seeing mixed signals regarding a nearly stationary boundary from the Gulf to the Western Atlantic that gets reinforced by a series of upper level troughs & possible low pressure developing at the surface along the front all the way through next week. This could be some “in-close” development anywhere from the Gulf to the far Western Atlantic. Some models indicate the potential for some tropical activity from near the Florida (Eastern Gulf) northeast coast northward across the Western Atlantic next week. Any low pressure that might develop over the Western Atlantic will move east & northeast away from the U.S.
(3) Multiple tropical waves are moving west & northwest between the Caribbean & Africa - something one would expect this time of year. At least one - & possibly two - of the waves has longer term potential as they rather slowly move west or northwest... the slow movement due to a relatively weak Bermuda high that currently is displaced to the east & northeast over the Atlantic. Such a position favors an alleyway for systems to turn north over the Central Atlantic... as long as the Bermuda High remains in such a state.
Fitting the pattern for an increase in tropical activity is persistent & seasonally strong surface high pressure at northern latitudes from the Central U.S. to the Northwest Atlantic. This high pressure will bring an early taste of fall across the Northern U.S. & may induce general low pressure to the south - a pattern that *could* favor tropical development at southern latitudes. It’s Mother Nature’s constant balancing/compensating act.
The experimental Climavision ‘Horizon’ model below for Wed., Sept. 11th shows the tropical disturbance hugging the coast of Mexico & Texas. Some of these model runs have shown a stronger storm a little more to the east:
Very heavy rain for much of the Gulf coast yet again for the upcoming week:
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows massive “sinking” air (brown lines) & overall hostile conditions for tropical development continue across the Atlantic Basin. In such a state, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air such as much of the Pacific Basin where convection is active. This “pulse” of upward motion should move over the Atlantic Basin over the next few weeks.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
September tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for September (2 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2024 names..... “Francine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
Hawaii satellite imagery:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Once powerful yphoon “Yagi” is weakening while moving inland over China:
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