Pennsylvania: Five facts about Erie County

Erie, the northernmost county in Pennsylvania, has carved out a niche as a bellwether in US presidential elections, with a majority of voters picking the White House winner since 2008.

Long seen as Democratic turf due to its blue-collar roots, it broke that mold by backing Donald Trump in 2016, reverting to a Republican for the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, but it flipped back to Joe Biden in 2020.

Here are five facts about the county, which could be pivotal in the November 5 presidential election between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris:

- Turnout critical -

The Covid-19 pandemic saw heightened interest in the 2020 presidential election, with Trump increasing his vote numbers -– by 6,800 -– from when he beat Hillary Clinton four years before.

But that was not enough to keep up with Biden, with Democrats turning out 10,000 more voters than in 2016.

Turnout will again be critical this time.

"So far, the switch to a Harris candidacy has only had an upside for Democrats," Robert Speel, associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, told AFP.

"Gloomy attitudes among Democrats about the Biden candidacy, due to his signs of aging and poor poll numbers, and resignation to a potential loss to Trump, have quickly switched to enthusiasm and optimism about the Harris ticket."

- Suburbs matter -

The 2024 contest is likely to see the city of Erie back Harris – Biden won all 63 urban precincts in 2020 – with Trump again dominating in rural areas.

What lies in the balance are suburbs such as Millcreek Township near the city, where Biden was favored four years ago, but which Trump won in 2016.

"Republicans are going to focus a lot on Harris's liberal views on issues and her personal and career background in the San Francisco area, which American conservatives perceive as everything wrong in their country. But it's not clear yet if any of that matters to voters in Erie County," said Speel.

"To many voters in Erie County and elsewhere, Trump now seems like the gloomy relic of a past age who may be too old to be president. Harris and Tim Walz should appeal well to the moderate suburban voters of Millcreek, the largest suburb in Erie County."

- Independents are key -

There were more than 200,000 registered voters in Erie County at the last presidential election in 2020, of which 137,494 voted, according to state figures -- putting turnout at around 68 percent, slightly above the national average.

Heading into the final months of the 2024 race, Democrats currently comprise about 46 percent of registered voters, ahead of Republicans at 40 percent, and independents at 14 percent.

- Falling population -

Erie's population is in decline, with 270,876 registered inhabitants, according to 2020 census data. That was a 3.5 percent fall from almost 280,000 a decade earlier.

The county is predominantly white (81 percent), with African Americans making up 7.3 percent of its constituents, Hispanic or Latinos registering 4.4 percent, and Asians at 2.3 percent.

- Reagan country -

Erie's complex mix of several large urban areas, dozens of rural counties and leafy suburbs means it has never been a shoo-in for either Republicans or Democrats.

Although voters backed Democratic candidates Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004 respectively, Republican George W. Bush won the White House on both occasions.

But by winning in 2016, Trump became Erie County's first Republican victor since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Only Biden's victory four years ago cemented its reputation as a place that signals general election sentiment.