An anti-Trump Republican swims against the tide

Larry Hogan may be a vanishing breed of Republican in US politics: a centrist, a supporter of abortion access, and a vocal critic of Donald Trump.

Now, despite being in conflict with much of his party, he hopes to win a seat in the Senate that could tip the upper chamber into Republican control.

Hogan, a popular former two-term governor of Maryland, is campaigning as an underdog in the Senate race in the state, a Democratic Party bastion bordering the capital Washington.

He is seeking out pockets of political resistance that might just propel him to a shock victory on November 5, when Trump hopes to retake the White House.

While the presidency is the biggest prize in the election, down-ballot races are crucial, especially for the 100-seat Senate where Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 majority.

And Maryland's race has broader implications too.

It is a test of whether "never-Trumpers" can draw voters' support and offer an alternative way forward for the Republican Party.

Hogan's earnest -- some would say quixotic -- bid for Republican relevance in the age of Trump took him recently to Leisure World, a suburban seniors community where he pledged to "figure out a way to bring people together."

His Democratic opponent Angela Alsobrooks "wants to make this race about red versus blue. I'm more concerned about the red, white and blue," said Hogan, referencing the American flag.

- 'Voice of reason'? -

The 68-year-old Hogan presents himself as a no-drama politician advocating "independent leadership."

He has moderated his position on abortion and now supports restoring nationwide rights to the procedure.

Maryland's race is uncommonly competitive for a state that has not elected a Republican senator since 1980.

Hogan did not mention Trump at Leisure World. In an interview afterward, he insisted there was room for moderates in the Republican fold.

"You could either give up on the party and wave the white flag, or you can continue to try to make a difference," Hogan told AFP, calling himself a "voice of reason in the middle."

While Trump's party has shifted rightward, it "could learn a lot from the way we governed," offered Hogan, who balanced Maryland's budget and led an economic revitalization.

"I'd like to set an example... that we showed a better path forward."

Hogan faces voters like Anne Bunai, a lifelong Democrat who backed him for governor but fears the Senate being controlled by Trump's party.

"That is the thing that is giving me pause," Bunai, 78, told AFP after hearing Hogan's stump speech.

She remains undecided about the state race, but hopes a Trump defeat that "will break the fever" among Republicans.

Dennis Melby chairs the Republican Party in Maryland's Montgomery County, a wealthy pocket of liberalism where Democrats dominate.

Trump and Hogan have "a different way of appealing to people," Melby said diplomatically.

- 'Soul searching' -

A recent poll by AARP shows a tight race, while other surveys have Alsobrooks significantly ahead. Melby described the contest as "a nail-biter."

Hogan's track record in drawing women, minorities and independents should be a useful guide for Republicans, according to Mileah Kromer, director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County's Institute of Politics.

"What has made Hogan a uniquely formidable candidate... is his ability to make inroads with swing voters," she told AFP.

"If Trump is soundly defeated but Hogan defies political gravity in Maryland, certainly there will be more attention to how this guy pulled it off," Kromer said.

Should Hogan lose, Republican moderates will continue "soul searching," she added.

Alsobrooks, the 53-year-old Prince George's County executive, rallied supporters recently in a wood-paneled Baltimore bar, where she stressed that "democracy is on the line" in November.

Asked by AFP where the Republican Party goes if Hogan loses, Alsobrooks said the election is about the country's future, "not about Larry Hogan."

Her Republican opponent meanwhile expressed confidence that the party can take "a different direction" than Trumpism.

"We are going to get back to a more traditional Republican Party that's a bigger tent," Hogan said, "or the party's not going to exist because they'll stop winning elections."