Robert Seitz: Maybe we don’t have much climate change happening after all

As an engineer, when I start a project, I confirm that the information I have to work with is correct, and that my objective is understandable and clear.

If in the course of my evaluation of that new project anything appears to not line up with my understanding of the project. I do deeper evaluation to determine what is right and make adjustments to the basis of the design to ensure a proper outcome.

I have been involved with projects that are based on combating climate change that results from greenhouse gas emissions. I have been evaluating the claims of heating, especially here in Alaska. When I became aware of the claims that Alaska is warming two to four times the rate of the rest of the planet, I began checking to see if this claim is true.

In my investigation of temperatures of the air, water, and soil around Alaska, I use actual data that is Alaska data; I do not consider computer models, upper atmosphere physics, or other esoteric sources.

After I looked at the claims that Alaska was warming two to four times faster than the rest of the planet, I kept looking at other data, such as sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, soil temperature profiles, and the growing seasons around Alaska.

So far, I am sticking with my finding that Alaska is not warming at a rate much faster than the rest of the planet, and the claim that it is warming faster is based on data analysis that skews the outcome because of the lack of extreme low temperatures for a few years in Alaska.

It is true that Alaska has warmed a bit from the cooling of the Little Ice Age, and that warming does not seem to be continuously advancing at any significant rate. The sea surface temperatures at coastal communities of Alaska are at or below normal values. Some locations have had above normal temperature over the past few years. A friend reported to me last week that the temperature is Bristol Bay is back down to normal, 54.3o. Southeast Alaska has slightly above normal surface temperatures at this time.

There are reports in Alaska newspapers of ancient trees revealed from beneath the glaciers as they recede. A range of ages are revealed by carbon dating that is 1,000 to 2,500 years or more. From this I know that it has been warmer in Alaska than it is now, and that warm could not have been the result of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. I encourage everyone to observe your surroundings, pay close attention to the weather, with intent to make up your own mind about global warming and climate change.

The hot weather occurs in the summer time when high pressure areas occur over a location. Likewise, cold weather occurs when high pressure occurs in the winter time, at high latitudes (like Alaska). So whatever has happened seems to have altered the path and pattern of the jet stream so that the high and low pressure areas are not as predictable as they used to be. Have you noticed that it was warm this spring and summer when the sky was clear, and have you noticed that when the clouds moved in it has been cooler and rainy?

If CO2 is not the evil that the world’s population has be convinced it is, we need to quickly and urgently spread the word and educate the people that science has been abused and misrepresented and we need to not blame fossil (hydrocarbon) fuels for the changes we have experienced. We need to quickly and urgently affect a change in energy policy in Alaska and in the U.S. and get back to market-driven energy markets, get back to cheap energy, get back to reliable energy, and get back to sensible energy and practices in Alaska.

For communities without fossil fuels or hydroelectric power plants, the wind and solar, or other renewable energy sources should still be pursued to provide power to those communities. Meanwhile, we in Alaska, can spent the years or decades in front of us to come up with whatever energy source that will best replace the natural gas or coal that has served us well for so long.

I will continue to study the temperature data for Alaska as well as precipitation, sea level, sea ice, and other factors that might be affected by climate variations. But now is the time to start our action to change direction on energy and resource development policies. Our citizens are better off with the fossil fuel-driven economy. They are better off from a health perspective and they are better off with opportunities with the fossil fuel-driven economy. Without the fossil fuel economy, Alaska would have no economy at all, or at best a small economy. If Alaska is to make a change, we need time to develop whatever we will change to.

If you understand science at all, you will know that the rightness or wrongness of understanding of a process is not provided by consensus of involved scientists. Truth is arrived at by scientific studies which are in direct opposition to many of the other studies to demonstrate best what seems to be, as opposed what doesn’t work.

Keep reading. Keep studying. Keep thinking. Keep discussing. You’ll reach a point of enlightenment.

Robert Seitz is a professional electrical engineer and lifelong Alaskan.