Russian and Chinese strategic bombers carried out an exercise off Alaska on Wednesday. The intent of this exercise was likely twofold: First, to dangle the threat of China and Russia fighting together in a future war with the United States. Second, to exert pressure against U.S. support for Ukraine and Taiwan and galvanize isolationist sentiments in the Republican Party.
The exercise involved two Russian TU-95MS strategic bombers and two Chinese H-6 strategic bombers. The TU-95s probably belong to a heavy bomber regiment based out of a Ukrainian air base near Russia's southeastern border with China. While the aircrafts entered the Alaska air defense identification zone, they did not enter U.S. or Canadian airspace.
Why did China and Russia choose these aircraft to send their message?
Because of their versatility in being able to threaten U.S. strongholds at long range. The TU-95MS can carry the Kh-55 cruise missile with either conventional or nuclear warheads. Different classes of H-6s operated by the People's Liberation Army can carry various ballistic or cruise missiles. If armed with such weapons, these aircraft would have been able to strike the entirety of Alaska.
It's clear this exercise was designed to broadcast Chinese-Russian cooperation on long-range strike operations. Video released by the Russian military shows the aircraft conducting air-to-air refueling and Russian Flanker fighter jets escorting the bombers. Both of these things would be expected in the event of a war with the U.S.
But as with recent joint naval exercises , these strategic bomber exercises seek to improve the interoperability of Chinese and Russian forces and make Washington consider whether a war with either China or Russia might lead to a war with both. The strategic intent, as with Russian President Vladimir Putin's defense accord with North Korea , is to complicate U.S. military planning and dilute U.S. political resolve in countering China and Russia.
This plain intent renders the Russian defense ministry's claim that the exercise was "not directed against third countries" absurd. The U.S. knows otherwise, hence why it and Canada launched an array of F-35, F-16, and CF-18 fighter jets to intercept the bombers. The North American Aerospace Defense Command wants to show that it can detect and neutralize these aircrafts before they can get in range of their prospective targets.
Still, there's no question that this exercise emphasizes growing tensions between the U.S. and Chinese-Russian partnership. Chinese President Xi Jinping is furious with the U.S. over its support for Taiwan and the Philippines amid his escalating threats. Russia is furious with the U.S. over its support for Ukraine.
But both leaders also know there are voices on the U.S.'s political Right, including Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his vice presidential nominee, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who are concerned that U.S. policy toward Ukraine is risking a direct U.S.-Russia war. Hence why Putin has been dangling nuclear threats in an increasingly public fashion. Xi and Putin will hope this exercise moves the U.S. against policies that challenge China and Russia.
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Top line: This exercise didn't pose a specific threat, but it wasn't just for show either.
China and Russia share an ambition to seize territories of some nations and undermine the resolve of democracy in others. And they know the U.S. is the primary obstacle to their fulfillment of that ambition.
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