<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=11etou_0v0N2nQW00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=11etou_0v0N2nQW00" width="1210" height="806" ><figcaption>The next time you see Simon Nemec on the ice, he will be in the Slovak uniform again. Olympics are on the line.</figcaption></figure>Next week, we will begin to go through the 2024 All About the Jersey Top 25 New Jersey Devils Under 25. For the Devils organization, the last major move to make in the offseason is a new contract for Dawson Mercer. Then we wait until the Prospects Challenge in Buffalo to get a taste of hockey by the Devils. Exhibition hockey played by prospects but hockey nonetheless. In the middle of all of this will be the final stage of qualification for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina. For 12 countries, the end of August will have the biggest games they will play in 2024. Ahead of that, let us take some time in the offseason to look at the Winter Olympics set up for men’s ice hockey. As with other sports in the Olympics, an international governing body oversees the process that decides who participates. For men’s and women’s ice hockey, that is the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF). They oversee transfers from leagues to leagues, set requirements for who can play for which country, and govern events like the World Championships. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) oversees the Olympics. They have already determined that hockey will be played in Milan at the PalaItalia and Fiera Milano Rho, which are both in development. The NHL did agree to release its players for the Olympics in 2026, which will add further reason for fans to watch the games in February 2026. Those games will be between 12 nations. While the tournament is not for another year and a half, the process to determine who will go will end before September 2, 2024.<h2>The Automatically Qualified</h2>Eight of the twelve nations are already known. Italy, who are hosting the Olympics, will be in this tournament. The road to Milan began in 2023 as the IIHF decided to grant automatic qualification to the top eight nations based on the IIHF’s World Ranking in 2023 after that year’s World Championships. This is where things get tricky to understand.The IIHF World Ranking is based on the previous IIHF tournaments over the last four years. The ranking today in August 2024 would be based on the World Championship tournaments in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 and the Winter Olympics in 2022. While the IOC oversees the Olympics, the IIHF counts that tournament as an IIHF event since they establish the criteria for who plays in it. Points are awarded based on how a country finished in those tournaments and there’s a coefficient to weigh recent results than those four years prior. The current year counts as 100%, the previous years drop by 25% each, and so teams cannot live on distant success. The idea is to elevate the teams that provide consistent results at the WCs and Olympics.However, the road to Milan began in 2023 and that means the tournaments they would count are in 2020 - which did not actually happen due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. And many nations did not participate in 2021’s tournaments. Therefore, the IIHF decided to use the pre-championship report to assign positions based on results in 2019, 2019, and 2020. While 2020 results would be the lowest weighted, they were included for the 2023 rankings. And those results went, in order, Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Czechia, United States, Germany, and Switzerland with Slovakia, Latvia, Norway, and Denmark following the top eight. Those top eight in 2020 ended up being the top eight in the 2023 rankings. Not in that exact order. The 2023 rankings ended up being: Canada, Finland, Russia, United States, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, and Czechia. All eight would be granted automatic qualification for the Olympics. And I had the same questions you may have: Germany over Sweden? Czechia holding on to eighth? What about Slovakia? A deeper dive into the past four tournaments actually held shows why. Germany’s fourth place finish in the 2021 WCs and second place finish in 2023’s WCs sandwiched between a disappointing 2022 Olympics really elevated the Germans. (Aside: While it did not count for the rankings, Germany did take Silver in 2018’s Olympics.) Instead of being on the edge of qualifying automatically, they were solidly in place. The Swedes finished 9th, 6th, and 6th in the WCs from 2021-2023 which undercut their fourth place finish in Beijing. Switzerland fared a bit better in those same WCs with 6th, 5th, and 5th place finishes - but eighth in Beijing saw them slip. As for the Czechs, their saving grace was a bronze in the 2022 World Championships amid a 7th and and 8th place finish in the other two WCs and a 9th place finish at the Olympics. (Aside #2: Their World Championship victory in 2024 should help for 2030’s games in Salt Lake City.) This is how Germany got past those three nations better known for hockey compared to the Germans.And despite those disappointing results, they cleared the rest of the pack. Slovakia did take Bronze in Beijing back in 2022 but finished no better than eighth in the World Championships. The 7th place finish this year further justifies their position outside of the automatic qualifiers. Likewise, the format of the world rankings also kept Latvia - who took Bronze at the 2023 World Championships - out given poorer finishes in other tournaments. Beyond those two, the countries ended up being further than 200 points behind the eighth-ranked Czechs. Of course, there is an elephant in the room among those top eight teams back in 2023. <h2>The Russian Factor</h2>Russia has been a hockey power as long as international hockey has been in place. They are also currently not in the picture in recent years. I typically avoid politics here as they invite a lot of elements I do not want on the site and it often does not apply to the subject. Here, I cannot avoid it. Russia’s acts of war in invading Ukraine is a major reason why Russia has been banned from many international competitions, including ones hosted by the IIHF. While I am in America and I can understand the threat from afar, it is a very tangible and real concern to many literally closer to the Russian western border. Many of those nations have a real reason to fear that they could be next after Ukraine. As such, those nations do not want to act like there is no issue and let them play. As the IIHF does not want to lose the favor of most of the European continent and be out of step from the international governing bodies of other sports, they have followed their wishes and expelled Russia and Belarus from their tourneys. (Note: This paragraph does not mean you can argue about Russia-Ukraine in the comments.)Of course, it is never that simple. Despite not being allowed to play, the IIHF still gave them points based on their 2021 rankings - from when they did play - and did include them in their 2023 rankings that decide who automatically qualifies for the 2026 Olympics. For a Belarus, it does not matter. They were never close. Russia, on the other hand, maintained a third place ranking in the world by the organization who refused to let them play in their tournaments over the last three years.It is an open question as to whether Russia will be allowed to participate in the 2026 Winter Olympics. They were banned back in 2022 in the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris outside of athletes willing to agree to play under the Individual Neutral Athlete name. They did not waver from it then since the war in Ukraine is still ongoing. I am sure it did not help that Russia’s doping program was still fresh in the minds of international sports groups as the Russians were suspended and teams and players had to compete under the ROC (Russian Olympic Committee) name in 2021 and 2022. Likewise, the IIHF’s issues with Russia may lie a bit deeper than just geopolitics and a continent that does not want to play nice with someone who is not. The Ivan Fedotov Saga did not lead to Russian players being detained from playing oversees. I am holding an ‘L’ on that. However, the Russian Ice Hockey Federation did not exactly respond well to the IIHF. This led to harsher punishments in May. They sanctioned Fedotov, CSKA Moscow, and the federation for it. While Fedotov’s contract was terminated so he could join the Flyers, that termination came months after the IIHF’s sanctions were upheld in December 2023. CSKA Moscow was placed under an international transfer ban for two years on top of fines issued to the federation. Despite that ban, CSKA Moscow has signed six Russian players from North America earlier this week. The ban was supposed to go into affect on August 11 but per Josh Erickson of Pro Hockey Rumors the KHL separated from the federation so the ban may not be enforceable anymore.All together, it reads to me that the Russian federation - even if the KHL is technically separated from it, I do not believe they are actually separate - has been trying to work around the IIHF. Even if the war ends by February 2026, I would like to think some at the IIHF may not be so quick to bring Russia back in given their insolence. Of course, things can change.A decision on that will come sooner rather than later. With the decision to ban Belarus and Russia from IIHF competitions for this coming season, the Belarussians were effectively eliminated from Olympic qualifying. Russia’s automatic spot hinges on the IIHF’s meeting in May 2025. And that spot could open up another opportunity for the last twelve nations able to qualify for the 2026 Winter Olympics - which will take place at the end of this month.<h2>Twelve Nations, Three Spots for Milan</h2>There were to be three qualification rounds for the 2026 Winter Olympics starting in 2023. The first round was ultimately cancelled. The following two rounds featured twelve national teams, split up into three groups of four. The winners of each group move on to the next round. The rest were done. Of those countries, the next eight - minus Belarus - in the World Rankings would participate in the final qualification round. They will play those who have survived the other rounds to get this far. This is what will be played from August 29 through September 1.Group D held in Bratislava, Slovakia: Slovakia (#9 in 2023’s ranking), Kazakhstan (#15), Austria (#16), Hungary (#18, best 2nd place team in the third round)Group E held in Riga, Latvia: Latvia (#10), France (#13), Slovenia (#17), Ukraine (#26, won a third round group)Group F held in Aalborg, Denmark: Denmark (#11), Norway (#12), Great Britain (#19, won a third round group), Japan (#24, won a third round group)Japan, Ukraine, and Great Britain can all say they earned this opportunity given their previous qualification play earlier this year. Hungary wouldn't normally be in this round given that they didn't win their group last round. They are here because Belarus wasn't allowed to play in 2024-25. So they have an additional shot at the Olympics. This group format is particularly cutthroat. Only the winners of each group are guaranteed to move on. One bad night and that could be it. One hot goalie, one tough night on the puck, one questionable referee performance, and so forth. These groups will play three games over four days and it will decide who goes to play on a massive international stage in a year and a half from now. Why now? Because, again, qualification began a year after the previous Olympics and they have to run through all 40+ nations (or 35 in this case) to figure it out. This is also where a finish a spot ahead of someone the World Championships can make some difference. Ukraine narrowly missed having to enter the second round of qualification by just 70 points. A worse performance than Estonia in one year could have meant a tougher road for them to get this far. Likewise, Japan finishing just ahead of China was a result of doing better than them in the 2022 and 2023 WCs and getting a group they could qualify out of whereas China got tougher draws against Great Britain and Romania - whom smacked the Chinese down back in February 10-1 and 6-1 respectively.And the national teams are taking this as seriously as any NHL playoff situation. Slovakia has confirmed that Simon Nemec and Tomas Tatar will be on the team, and they recently decided that they will let KHL players on the roster namely to ensure they have the best possible roster. A big switch from their previous decision to keep them out from their WC teams. Expect to see other NHLers participate too. For example, Nikolaj Ehlers of the Jets will be representing Denmark along with Frederik Andersen, Devil-killer Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Lars Eller. I will attempt to preview these qualifiers in more detail on August 25. The point is that this means a lot more than any preseason or exhibition tournament. Hopefully, there will be an easy way to follow what should be some passionate hockey. Since again, the margin for error is thin.But what about Russia? If the IIHF decides to not let Russia participate and the IOC is fine with that, then who takes their spot? There are two possibilities. The first possibility is to take the best second-place team from these three groups. Goal differential could very well decide who goes to Milan or not. The second possibility is to take the highest ranked nation that did not qualify. This would favor the host nations. Especially Slovakia, who is the highest ranked nation out of all 12 national teams. Not that I would expect them to assume that spot in the games at the end of this month. In any case, this is an overview of how the 2026 Winter Olympics slate for men’s ice hockey is pretty much close to being decided. I do find it odd that the qualification is not ending next year, closer to the actual tournament. Then again, the IIHF has set up the automatic spots and decisions on seeding based on rankings from what will be nearly 3 years old when the hockey world looks to Milan in February 2026. They have to allow time for all nations who want to participate to play out their qualifications and do so without interrupting the traditional hockey calendar too much. And so here we are on the edge of meaningful international hockey. Please let me know what you think. Do you think the IIHF can improve their qualification format? What should they have done instead of assuming results for tournaments that did not happen and rankings to countries they are not playing? Does Russia get to play in 2026? If not, who will go in their place? What do you want to see in a preview of the final Olympic qualification groups? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Olympic qualification in the process? Thank you for reading.</div></body>

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NewsBreak

Men’s Ice Hockey for the 2026 Winter Olympics at a Glance Before Qualification

Next week, we will begin to go through the 2024 All About the Jersey Top 25 New Jersey Devils Under 25. For the Devils organization, the last major move to make in the offseason is a new contract for Dawson Mercer. Then we wait until the Prospects Challenge in Buffalo to get a taste of hockey by the Devils. Exhibition hockey played by prospects but hockey nonetheless. In the middle of all of this will be the final stage of qualification for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina. For 12 countries, the end of August will have the biggest games they will play in 2024. Ahead of that, let us take some time in the offseason to look at the Winter Olympics set up for men’s ice hockey.