Intense Hurricane Possibly Lurking Off of East Coast by Next Weekend

Cape Verde Sourced Tropical Disturbance to Intesify as it Heads Towards Lesser Antilles

08/10/24 10:35am ET

Current Tropical Disturbances 08/10/24Photo byNWS

Good morning everyone. On the heels of Hurricane/Tropical Syorm Debby, we unfortunately begin to watch the tropics again as things begin to heat up. August into September is "peak season", and it looks as if Mother Nature will not disappoint.

We are closely monitoring our next tropical disturbance moving WNW towards the Lesser Antilles. Conditions are ripe as favorable winds keep the shear to a minimum, and water temperatures are obviously warm enough for our system to quickly intensify.

What this means is that the Caribbean and East Coast need to watch this, and the time frame frame is going to be relatively short due to its forward speed. Over the next several days, we should have Tropical Storm Ernesto, then Hurricane Ernesto on our hands.

While it's too early to tell where he goes, we are expecting this to be an East Coast-lurker; meaning a close call or possible strike. We also expect this ot be a very powerful Hurricane based on the latest models.

GFS 06Z 08/10/24 for 08/17/24Photo byTropical Tidbits

While the GFS has Ernesto going out to sea for the time being, the EURO takes Ernesto on a more southern route; closer to Cuba and Florida. We will continue to watch this situation and update as needed.

What we do know is that things are about to get busier in the tropics, so for those in the zone for any hypothetical system, start going through your supplies and plans to make sure you are ready for the 2024 season.

National Weather Service - Latest Tropical Update