Severe Weather Likely Across Parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee Mid-Week

Concerns Rise Across Texas & Louisiana Coast for Future Tropical Storm/Hurricane Francine

09/09/24 7:08am ET

CONUS Satellite 09/09/24Photo byNWS

Good morning everyone. We have an unusually quiet stretch in the Northeast for this time of year as high pressure dominates the area, and protects us from any & every frontal system. Look for sunshine for the next 7 days, plus a warming trend into the 80's all the way into and including the weekend.

High pressure dominates the Northeast, but remains a curse for the Southeast and Gulf Coast as a stationary front lingers with nowhere to go. This front is draped across the Southeast coast, into the Gulf Coast, and about to cause more problems for Texas & Louisiana.

We've noted this several times in the past few weeks that old fronts can help spawn and direct tropical systems; and this week will be the case for that argument. An old tropical wave interacting with the old stationary front, has helped invigorate a new wave of low pressure that has formed into a tropical depression. We are expecting this to form into Tropical Storm Francine, then possibly into a Hurricane before making landfall.

Whether we are dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane, landfall is expected some time between Wednesday afternoon and night, somewhere along the Louisiana coast. In the immediate time frame, areas of south Texas are expecting torrential rain, gusty winds, and possibly some severe weather with tropical bands coming ashore.

While we do not expect a direct hit in New Orleans in terms of the center of a landfalling hurricane going over it, there will be direct and indirect impacts there and all the way up into the Mississippi Valley. We are also expecting areas such as Houston and Galveston to see some hefty impacts as well.

As with any landfalling tropical storm or hurricane, severe weather and flooding is the secondary risk once the center of circulation reaches land and heads further inland. Areas such as interior parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Indiana, all need to watch this system due to its potential for widespread severe weather; including widespread brief tornadoes, damaging winds, and large-scale flooding.

The timeline for interior impacts as opposed to coastal, looks to be late overnight Wednesday into Saturday & Sunday from south to north. Stay tuned for the latest, and we will fine-tune this forecast over the next couple of days.

Here is your local NYC Metro forecast -

Sunshine rules today as it will into the weekend. Today will be the last day of 70's, then we warm up as the week goes on.

Look for more sunshine and near 80 temps tomorrow, then low 80's for Wednesday. We'll have low to mid 80's for Thursday, then mid to possibly upper 80's for Friday.

Sunshine continues into Saturday and Sunday, but if we see some upper 80's on Friday, we scale them back to mid 80's for both Saturday and Sunday. We are not expecting any fringe impacts in NYC at this time with future-tropical storm or hurricane Francine.

National Weather Service - Tropical Storm Discussion - South Texas Region