Tropical Storm Development Possible in the Gulf of Mexico Late in the Week

Long Range Models Suggest More Tropical Activty Possible Over the Next 7 Days

09/28/24 8:38am ET

CONUS Satellite 09/28/24Photo byNWS

Good morning everyone. On the heels of our damaging storm that just impacted a large portion of the Southeast & Central States, we continue to have to watch the tropics for future activity.

This is the time of year where we continue to have to watch Central America and the lower Caribbean for tropical development from old waves and stalled out fronts. Unfortunately, the weather events from the last 72hrs, doesn't make us immune for the rest of the season.

We set the clock back to zero over the next couple of days and begin to keep an eye on the typical trouble spots for late-season tropical development. This is because long range models suggesting that a new tropical wave or tropical depression, could develop in the lower Caribbean, and take a similar path to what we just had.

Late in the workweek this week will give us a better idea of what to expect or not to expect, because this is around the time we would expect low pressure to pass between Cuba and the Yucatan of Mexico, then enter the Gulf.

GFS 06Z 09/28/24 for Thur 10/03/24 2PM ETPhoto byTropical Tidbits

Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, all need to keep an eye on this one. Even if we are not dealing with an intense system on the level we saw Thursday and yesterday, we could be dealing with something that could bring more heavy rain and thunderstorms to areas that simply don't need it right now.

Stay tuned and we will watch the tropics and Gulf of Mexico very closely.

National Weather Service - Tropical Update - 7 Day Outlook