The Path to Defending the Title: Ranking Michigan’s Regular Season Games

By Beck Silver

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off of one of the most successful seasons in college fFootball history. After going 15-0 and being crowned the National Champions of the 2023 season, it’ll be tough for them to top that performance this year. The Wolverine’s have one of the most difficult schedules in all of college football this year , and nobody entirely knows what to expect. Below I’ve ranked every game on Michigan’s 2024 regular-season schedule based on importance and difficulty.

12. Arkansas State (Week 3)

Coming in last place as the least important game of the 2024 season for the Wolverines is the week three matchup against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves had a highly mediocre 2023 season, going 6-7. They completely failed to perform against Power 5 opponents, with a key 0-73 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners. Arkansas State ranks poorly according to ESPN’s FPI , coming in at 97 (the lowest of all of Michigan’s opponents this season). This game will be a fantastic opportunity for the Wolverines to reset after what will inevitably be a tough fought game, win or loss, against the Texas Longhorns the week prior.

11. Indiana University (Week 11)

Just above Arkansas State is Indiana. This late-season Big Ten matchup should be a relatively easy victory for the Wolverines. The Hoosiers will be adjusting to a new head coach, Curt Cignetti , after an abysmal 3-9 performance last season. In ESPN’s FPI the Hoosiers fare poorly as they’re ranked 77.

10. University of Illinois (Week 8)

In another Big Ten matchup, Michigan's game against Illinois ranks at the ten spot. The Illini finished 5-7 in the 2023 season and aren’t necessarily expected to take any big strides. They rank 62nd according to ESPN’s FPI, but there isn’t anything super exciting about their team this year.

9. University of Minnesota (Week 5)

The ninth spot is taken by Minnesota. The Golden Gophers finished the 2023 season 6-7, losing to Purdue but beating a ranked Iowa team. They also won their post-season game, the Quick Lane Bowl. While this Week 5 game isn’t particularly important, as it should be an easy victory for the Wolverines, I think Minnesota has a bigger upside this year than Illinois. They rank 61st (one spot above the Fighting Illini) in ESPN’s FPI, and they’re led by head coach P.J. Fleck.

8. Fresno State (Week 1)

Fresno State takes the eighth spot in this ranking, being Michigan’s first game of the regular season. Fresno State finished 9-4 in the 2023 season with key victories over Purdue and Arizona State. Nerves and expectations will be high for this week one matchup in Ann Arbor. While the Bulldogs only come in at 74th according to ESPN’s FPI, this is a classic look-ahead trap game for the Wolverines. It’s entirely possible for the Wolverines to keep this game closer than it should be (as they did with Maryland in 2023 and Illinois in 2022) because of the big game the following week (Texas). While I’m confident Michigan will walk away from this game victorious, this one could be a bit sneaky. If the game is still close in the third quarter, don’t be too surprised.

7. Northwestern (Week 13)

Coming in at number seven is the game versus Northwestern, who ranks at 57 according to ESPN’s FPI. The Wildcats finished the 2023 season 8-5 with a key win over Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Although this is another game that the Wolverines shouldn’t struggle with, much like the game against Fresno State, this is a look-ahead trap game. As previously stated, the past two years Michigan has seen close wins against their opponents in the week prior to The Game. This year I don’t expect it to be any different. I anticipate a close win over the Wildcats in this Week 13 game as the Wolverines prepare for Ohio State.

6. Michigan State University (Week 9)

The sixth spot is taken by Michigan’s in-state rival Michigan State. Although Michigan has handled the Spartans without any issues the past two years, the Spartans have reloaded by bringing on Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith as their head coach and Aiden Chiles as their presumed starting quarterback. The Spartans won’t be a College Football Playoff team this year, as they’re ranked 68th according to ESPN’s FPI, but they’ll look to improve upon their poor 4-8 record from last season. Additionally, like the Fresno State and Northwestern game, this is a look-ahead trap game as the following week Michigan will play Oregon. The combination of in-state rivalry and look-ahead game could be deadly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game close into the fourth quarter.

5. USC (Week 4)

Just cracking the top five is the University of Southern California. The Trojans, who lost their QB1 Caleb Williams , are expected to take a step back this year. Ranking 18th in ESPN’s FPI, USC is expected to be a solid team. They finished 8-5 in the 2023 season, and their lack of defensive ability may continue to haunt them this season. This game will likely be the second ranked matchup of Michigan’s regular season.

4. Washington (Week 6)

Washington will take the fourth spot on this list. After competing for a National Championship last season, the Huskies, much like the Wolverines, will probably take a step back this year. This rematch of last year’s National Championship will be played in Husky territory midway into the season. The Huskies are ranked 31st according to ESPN’s FPI and are looking to continue their explosive offense despite losing QB1 Michael Penix Jr. to the draft. Read more about this rematch here.

3. Oregon (Week 10)

Just breaking the top three is Oregon. The Ducks will be one of Michigan’s three hardest opponents in their regular season and will likely be a College Football Playoff team. This home game will be a tough fought battle for both teams. Oregon is ranked second according to ESPN’s FPI and is looking to win their first National Championship of the modern era. Their program, led by head coach Dan Lanning , is one of strong culture and conditioning, which makes them dangerous.

2. Texas (Week 2)

Texas will take the spot as the number two toughest game of the 2024 Michigan regular season. The Longhorns, who rank third according to ESPN’s FPI, will likely be a College Football Playoff team this year and this will be a ranked matchup. Taking place in Ann Arbor, this game got the nod over the Oregon game because it’s so early into the season and it’s a matchup between two 2023 CFP teams. That being said, as of now, it looks like the Oregon and Texas games will essentially be of equal importance to this season. This Week 2 game will be a great temperature check for the Longhorns and Wolverines after their much easier first week games. If Michigan can win this game they’ll be in a good position to potentially start the season 8-0, although there are never any guarantees.

1. Ohio State University (Week 14)

This is The Game. Not only the biggest game of the Michigan or Ohio State 2024 schedules, but the biggest regular season game of college football. Consistently being the highest-rated game of the regular season, this game could have implications for the playoffs, the Big Ten championship, and potentially Ryan Day ’s job - but that’s another story.

This season will be incredibly difficult for the Wolverines. Not to say they can’t go undefeated, however they’ll have one of the most difficult schedules in college football. It helps that, with the expanded playoff, teams won’t have to be 12-0 or 11-1 to be in contention, but this still begs the question: Can the Wolverine’s defend their title, or will this year's schedule be too much for them?